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Luffy's first bounty was a good bit later. The fonts have changed over time but in text they don't quite resemble a cut in half circle.

It's not that easy if you're guessing it's something else, y'know?

You're just replacing speculation with more speculation at best. Anyway, the font used in the manga doesn't always have a D that resembles a smiling mouth or half circle. Some in Japan are also guessing it's Dawn, that's a pretty strong guess given what we know.

Dawn is a word Oda writes in English... this separates it from a lot of other words beginning with "D" Amongst other clues we now have the sun god Nika. Kozuki clan is the moon so post Wano has an interesting way of playing into this

It's a pretty old theory... like I know I at least saw it back when Pedro was talking about the Dawn. And wth is Laughy