for me personally I don't think it will fail, Oda already set up so many advantages to the alliance and some disadvantages to beast pirates to make the raid fail. like Beast pirates getting divided being switched to alliance sides because of stupid plot, and Kaido weakening state which was already mention by yamato, this shows Oda already making an excused why Kaido will loose this war. since oda likes to justify the outcome of battles with excuses, The reasons Whitebeard Failed back in marineford was not because of the marine being superior, its because of some Circumstances that happen, like the incident Whitebeard getting betrayed and stab by Squard weakening him making him vulnerable with fatal attacks in the future. then Blackbeard pirates interfering, even with Aces Death, WB still has the capabilities to even the score taking out one of admirals if blackbeard didn't show up. so for me i don't see reason for the raid to fail with all the things oda presented. unless there's something un expecting scenario that will happen, like the WG deciding to help kaido, but they already said they will juts sit idle and wait for the outcome.