Worstgen

Tldr: Yes, it WILL be a clusterfuck, far larger than Wano.

Ok, this thread has been a long time coming because for the life of me I couldn't understand where Oda was going with this whole Rocks/God Valley/Burned Man plotline (and ofc, still might be entirely wrong), but after doing a reread of Egghead and some of the lore drops we've gotten recently, I think its becoming pretty safe to say that Elbaf is about to become the epicenter of One Piece's Grand War.

There are caveats to this theory but when I say this, Im not necessarily talking about the World Government being involved or even every party falling here, just that this will be the location everyone ends up fighting over the 4th Road Poneglyph. When I say "Grand War", I am talking primarily about the 4th RP fight and the fight to even get to Laugh Tale.

Now Ive created several threads similar to this, but I will reiterate/streamline their points below to drive home the point Im making. The way Im going to approach this is strictly by Character and Oda's narrative habits with each. But hopefully by the end you'll see what I mean, as not every character is tied to Elbaf, but those that are are inherently tied to those that aren't.

Anyway, the reason Im making this hard claim about Elbaf is solely due to Oda's tendency to tie a bunch of characters together to form arcs. Whether or not their storyline ends here is anyone's guess, but Im going to list the the factions out below:

- Luffy and his fleet
- Shanks and his fleet
- Blackbeard and his fleet
- Cross Guild and their fleet (i.e. maybe Underworld Allies and Former Shichibukai)
- Akainu's Marines & SWORD (i.e. Koby and his group)
- Elbaf's inhabitants
- Big Mom Pirates (not BM herself)
- All Supernova
- The Burned Scar Man and his group
- Rocks and/or clones of his crew members (i.e. more people like Stussy and Weevil)

At the moment I am leaving out the Revolutionary Army, Allied Kingdoms like Wano, and World Government proper but they may also play their roles here due to some character relationships. Im not sure.


But anyway, the main the theme of the thread are those specific relationships. If anyone knows, a decent way to guess what future arcs will consist of is to just guess character threads and relationships. The most recent example is Egghead:

- Bonney had an unknown relationship with Kuma (at the time)
- Kuma knew Vegapunk
- Vegapunk works with Kizaru and Sentoumaru
- We get tons of allusions to VP via SSG stuff prior to the Seraphim reveals.

Now Oda has created a scenario on Egghead where all of these characters are together, including a Gorosei who seems directly responsible for Kuma's plotline.


Anyway, keep note of this as we go through everything:

1. Strawhat Pirates and their Fleet

In a way, yes, this is objectively obvious lol. But I think discussing this group is worth it to tie together the some of the groups I will end up discussing.

Narratively, we have Usopp and Robin who are likely going to be central to the arc. Robin is mainly justified through her connections to Saul, who is confirmed alive now. Better yet, is the fact that both are connected to Kuzan, who is still highly central to their plight. He has directly explained that his current motivations, whatever they are, seem to be motivated by his past with them. This strongly indicates that Blackbeard's crew can be tied to Elbaf.



Usopp's inherent relationship with Elbaf is obvious, and save for the connections to the 4 Giants we have gotten accustomed to (Dorry, Broggy, Oimo and Kaashi), what I do find fascinating is Oda has seemingly confirmed Elbaf does hold some deeper connections to Shanks (and why I think he'll be back now), which Ill go into later. What Im implying though is that this should indeed be the arc where Usopp meets his father, Yasopp. Really laying on the brave warrior aspect, something so important to Usopp, intrinsically should and could relate to Yasopp.

Finally, you have the Strawhat Fleet, which not only is apparently central to a future major incident, but 1 of the 7 captains is in fact an Elbaf native, along with his 4 crew members, Hajrudeen. Not only this, but Hajrudeen is tied to Cross Guild, which I can imagine a future interaction were Buggy gets pissed at them for leaving. Regarding the rest that are currently relevant:

- Sai and Leo are absolutely on the run now after attacking Charloss, which leads me to think its in fact Fujitora giving them chase for attacking him (but its played as a joke/hes not really trying because he hates CDs, for the life of me I dont know what else Fujitora could be doing atm though lol)

- Barto is currently a target of Shanks, which suggests that if he's captured or on the run, it holds ground to eventually get the Fleet back together if their members are in trouble by 2 different targets.

2. Shanks and his Fleet

So after rereading it became apparent to me that Shanks does seem to have big connective tissue with Elbaf. Yes, Oda has been making jump around at a ridiculous rate (to Wano for Blackbeard/Ryo, back to Elbaf for Kid, now leaving Elbaf again for Barto or Blackbeard), but the dialogue with his fleet implies they are staying at Elbaf while he comes to visit and leaves:


I.e. they arent heading out with him, which means they are probably staying at Elbaf, which further suggests that Shanks will end up returning at some point after he does what he needs to do.

Shanks' relationships with the Giants are unknown, but he calls them old friends. But more importantly, is he seems to have a very direct relationship with a kid Giant like Luffy was, including another bartender lol. All of this seems to imply Elbaf falls under his territory, which makes sense due to his "viking" motif anyway.

As mentioned above, Yasopp is under his crew, who is tied to Usopp, who will probably be central to the arc for multiple reasons. He is allegedly going after Barto, while trying to find Blackbeard, while ALSO waiting for Luffy lol.

Finally, you have the proclamation from Ryokugyuu that they (the Marines) eventually intend to fight the Red Hair Pirates

It might be safe to say that Elbaf should involve Shanks.

3. Blackbeard and his fleet

While little to do with Elbaf itself, Blackbeard is inherently tied to a myriad of factions that need their narratives tidied up with him:

- Shanks and their clear disdain for each other
- Luffy for similar, endgame reasons
- Akainu by virtue of Kuzan existing with Blackbeard. Kuzan leaving is evidently tied to his conflict with Sakazuki
- Capturing Garp will evidently lead to retaliation by SWORD and Marines like Sengoku/Tsuru, also Luffy.
- Capturing Pudding absolutely implies the BMP will end up trying to get her back
- He seems to be benefitting from Cross Guild's bounty payments.
- There is a direct connection the Rocks pirate Ochoku, in an incident that benefitted from his confrontation with Koby and Law, characters he has already had additional confrontations with in recent chapters.
- He is the 2nd person to discuss the Burned Scar Man, the first being Kid (and Law by his reaction)

As you can see, Blackbeard is just dipping his hands in everything. So much so that if you follow the logic of character relationships to narration, it almost feels like all of these parties will need to present when plot focuses on him.

There is also the question of what some of his crewmates are/were doing in Egghead, which may propel the conflcit between him and the crew even further.

4. Cross Guild

This one is has more to do with Buggy's very important chapter in 1082 over anything else. By his declaration, he wants One Piece, which means he needs to be present in the longstanding conflict for the 4 RPs in order to get to Laugh Tale. He claims it doesnt have to be a direct fight, but they do have to be present nonetheless to steal RP copies from one of the other Yonko or the Burned Scar Man

But on direct character relationships:

- Both Buggy and Mihawk have direct relationships with Shanks, meaning both groups should encounter each other narratively as there are things we still dont know
- Crocodile is a harder sell. We dont really know what his true purpose is. He clearly has ties to Whitebeard and Ivankov, but we dont know more than this. Maybe Kuma's FB gives something else to work with.
- Finally you just have their "potential". Its very clear CG is immensely bare on the "important character" scale. However, their potential for connections to other former Shichibukai (Moria, Weevil, Hancock, and Doflamingo) and the Underworld Emperors (based on dialogue, seems to be the source CG Marine Hunting) is decently high.



5. Akainu and his Marines, plus SWORD

Like Blackbeard, Akainu's group seems to have so much connective tissue to other Yonko factions currently:

- As mentioned, to Kuzan and thus, Blackbeard
- Via Ryokugyuu, who's eventual intent is to face Shanks and the RHP. He also captured Weevil separately, which is bound to have a payoff soon.
- Via Kizaru, who is currently la key character in Egghead against Luffy. He will likely lose/die after Egghead, which will just further escalate tension between Luffy and Akainu.
-Via Fujitora, who's current state is unknown but may be pursuing SHF members or Cross Guild.
- Sengoku, Tsuru and SWORD who obviously need to be present for Garp's fate.
- Smoker, while MIA, also has direct ties to Kuzan, so he could be present


6. Elbaf Inhabitants

Pretty straight forward. Dorry, Broggy, Oimo, Kaashi, Loki, Saul and more will be focal points, all with ties to different characters.

The one I do want to highlight though is Loki, who inherently has ties to the BMP and Bege/Lola now, both of which I discuss more below. Not much else to on here outside of their ties to Robin, Usopp and Shanks' group.

7. Big Mom Pirates

I stress here that I do not believe Linlin will be present in this arc, nor Kaido. Rather, the legacy Linlin had on Elbaf (their hatred for her) may be recognized via Katakuri and his remaining crew. Now i put them here not only because of their mother's relationship to Elbaf, but because, as mentioned above, their obvious disdain for the Blackbeard pirates due to Pudding.

IF Blackbeard is a focal point in Elbaf, it seems very clear to me then that she should also be present to try and get their sister back.

8. Supernova

Barring Bonney, who is very likely traveling with the crew to Elbaf, and Urouge, who may end up having some ties to the island or a sky island above it since hes the last Supernova, Bege technically has narrative ties to the island via Lola, who's story may come down to dealing with the hatred that the giants had for her mother and potential reunion with her siblings (BMP) and even Nami. Not only this, but stake in Pudding's capture as well, since Pudding seemed to look up to Lola.




Then you have Drake, who is a SWORD member with Koby, who also seems to have assumedly rescued Hawkins (?). Considering Drake's mission is still unknown with Sword, he may have focus with them here if Blackbeard is also present, due to Garp.

Apoo is the outlier, with no direct connection but he does seem to be running around with either 1 or multiple Ancient Giants, so who knows what happens to him.

Finally you have Kid, Killer and Law. The former 2 are already technically on Elbaf, though their status is unknown, and we have no idea where Bepo swam to. I suspected another island, but swimming to Elbaf is just as likely imo. The key point I want to make about them is their ominous reactions to the Burned Scar Man, who is the next topic. If they react this way, then surely they known him, which might mean we will hear more about him from either character, because narrative supports them both not letting more on then they know (meaning we should know in the future from them).


Not to mention the people who defeated them are Blackbeard and Shanks, so to get some more on that would make sense.

9. The Burned Scar Man

With the topic of this character being referenced multiple times, including the 4th RP, it makes a lot of sense for him to be involved in Elbaf. Typically when Oda lays on the mystery of codename characters (Mr. 0 and Joker to be precise), their relevancy tends be sooner rather than later. Considering the Burned Scar Man is the target of all Yonko and this thread is mainly focused on the idea of everyone fighting in Elbaf, it would make sense to involve him next arc.

The main question really revolves around Oda will involve him. Will someone chase him to Elbaf? Is he already there in the middle of Warland?

What of his identity? Could this be the pirate Shanks talks about with the Gorosei? Maybe this God Valley flashback helps with finding this out. If Rocks is engulfed by flames and believed to be dead, could it be him? Is it Daavy Jones or some other type of Fishman? Many theories are possible.

What is his crew comprised of? Level 6 escapees? Former Roger/Whitebeard/Rocks pirates?

10. Rocks/Rocks Clones

The final faction is similar to what is mentioned above about the Burned Scar Man. God Valley is heavily tied to Kuma and Egghead, which means the narrative for Rocks is getting much closer to relevancy.

You also have the fact that Vegapunk has cloned a Rocks pirate through Stussy, who is tied to not only them, but the Underworld, who may be tied to Cross Guild. With this, there is a reasonable expectation that there are more clones, since Weevil is implied to be a failed one and Stussy is "Successful Clone #1"

The question is, to what capacity? Maybe the Burned Scar Man and Rocks are one in the same?


Bonus: The Revolutionaries and World Government

There is also the potential these factions get involved as well, but Im still keen on them being more involved in things beyond the direct fight for One Piece. Theres very little connection between the RAs to anyone but Kuma or VP for example. Their only antagonistic connection is with the World Government itself. Conversely the same issue issue exists with Imu, Gorosei and God Knights. They currently have no active plotlines with anyone save for Kuma/VP

I put them at a solid maybe, but I would sooner expect them to be LT or post LT involvement.

The point: Oda has way too many characters with way too many threads tying each together that, if he were to not address mostly everything in a 200+ chapter arc, we will either have One Piece for 15 more years or never finish it. With Elbaf around the corner, and a myriad of characters tied to it, AND essentially all other major characters to them, it is becoming increasingly evident that Elbaf itself may last years with its conflict.

Either this or its the island after where much of this carries forward, but Im willing to bet its here. Again though, this is not suggesting Blackbeard and/or Shanks cant survive the conflict if need be, to give Luffy a closer fight at LT, but maybe thats also reserved for the WG in the end, who knows.

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