Anime & Manga King's Bounty Speculation Thread

What is King's Bounty?

  • >= 2B

  • 1.8B - 1.99B

  • 1.6B - 1.79B

  • 1.4B - 1.59B

  • 1.2B - 1.39B

  • 1B - 1.19B

  • < 1B


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Cinera

π•Έπ–†π–˜π–ˆπ–π–Šπ–“π–“π–ž 𝕡𝖆𝖍𝖆𝖉
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#1
Let's try our best to guess King's bounty. When his bounty is revealed, to some of us I would hand
.
For the rest? Please :holdthisl:.

Let's see who's most accurate. Predict by casting your vote in the poll. The poll would be up for 15 days (King's bounty probably isn't going to be revealed within that timeframe, and it's enough time for those interested to make their predictions).

Feel free to state your reasons, how confident you are in the prediction, etc.

Please tag folks you think would be interested.

 
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RayanOO

Lazy is the way
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#2
For me King has a bounty between 1.33 to 1.49b.

Queen has a 1.32b bounty so either Oda does a Kaku/Jabra thing with a small difference between the two : so 1.33b for King.

But if Oda gives King a bigger bounty then for me it cannot go higher than Luffy bounty as a pseudo 5th Yonko 1.5b.

So for me it can go between 1.33 to 1.49b.

I think it will be 1.4 to 1.45b.
 

Cinera

π•Έπ–†π–˜π–ˆπ–π–Šπ–“π–“π–ž 𝕡𝖆𝖍𝖆𝖉
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#7
But if Oda gives King a bigger bounty then for me it cannot go higher than Luffy bounty as a pseudo 5th Yonko 1.5b.
I don't understand this. Beckmann most likely has a higher bounty than Luffy. Marco probably does as well. There's no reason to arbitrarily restrict King based on that.
 

Cinera

π•Έπ–†π–˜π–ˆπ–π–Šπ–“π–“π–ž 𝕡𝖆𝖍𝖆𝖉
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#9
option 1: 1.33 billion
With Queen having 1.32 billion it will be similar to Sanji (330 million) and Zoro ( 320 million )

option 2: 1.4- 1.49 billion.
He is much stronger than Queen but below the fifth Yonko.

I don’t see him above Luffy in bounty.
I don't understand this. Beckmann most likely has a higher bounty than Luffy. Marco probably does as well. There's no reason to arbitrarily restrict King based on that.
Like the Yonkou bounty reveal and Queen's bounty reveal shattered this argument. Beckmann is going to have a bounty substantially higher than Luffy, so unless you insist Beckmann's bounty is below Luffy's (this seems very unlikely IMO), you shouldn't insist King's bounty is below Luffy's.

@RayanOO.
 

RayanOO

Lazy is the way
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#10
I don't understand this. Beckmann most likely has a higher bounty than Luffy. Marco probably does as well. There's no reason to arbitrarily restrict King based on that.
Yes Beckman and Marco for me have higher bounties than Luffy.

Marco because he was the captain during one year.

And Beckman because he is the partner of Shanks and likely more powerful than WCI Luffy by a shot, I have Beckman as low top tier.
We don't really know him but Sengoku hyped him among the commanders and every piece of info we have tell us that he is quite the deal : smartest guy of East blue, the shadow of Shanks etc.
 
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#12
Like the Yonkou bounty reveal and Queen's bounty reveal shattered this argument. Beckmann is going to have a bounty substantially higher than Luffy, so unless you insist Beckmann's bounty is below Luffy's (this seems very unlikely IMO), you shouldn't insist King's bounty is below Luffy's.

@RayanOO.
Well then Option1
I don’t think King is much stronger than Queen anyway.
 

Cinera

π•Έπ–†π–˜π–ˆπ–π–Šπ–“π–“π–ž 𝕡𝖆𝖍𝖆𝖉
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#15
I guess this is an accurateish probability distribution of my credence in different estimates of King's Bounty.
< 1.0B: 1%
1.0B - 1.19B: 4%
1.2B - 1.39B: 15%
1.4B - 1.59B: 30%
1.59B - 1.79B: 25%
1.8B - 1.99B: 20%
> 2.0B: 5%

I basically arrived at my 75% confidence interval by extrapolating from the progression observed among the Sweet commanders.
  • Cracker: 860M
  • Smoothie: 932M (+72M)
  • Katakuri: 1.057B (+125M) (125 = 72 * 1.736)

For the Beast Pirates we have:
  • Jack: 1.000B
  • Queen: 1.320B (+320M)
  • King: 1.876B (+556M) (320 * 1.736 = 0.556)

I assigned 20% probability to that bracket and 5% to above that bracket.

For my lower bound, I assigned 20% probability to "same bracket as Queen or lower". 15% went to 1.2B - 1.39B, 5% to a lower bracket than Queen.

Deciding how to divide the remaining 50% probability mass between 1.4B - 1.59B and 1.59B - 1.79B was pretty difficult, and I'm not very confident in my numbers for there (and may change it later). Things I kept in mind:
  • Relationships between Zoro and Sanji's bounties.
    • Excluding the anomalous WCI arc(s) it has been:
      • EL: 77M vs 120M.
        • A multiplier of 1.56.
      • Dressrosa: 177M vs 320M.
        • A multiplier of 1.81.
    • There's no consistent multiplier, and it's probably not a geometric progression. Besides WCI boosted Sanji above Zoro, so the argument isn't very credible.
  • @TheAncientCenturion's arguments that King is the Marco equivalent.
  • Queen appears to be closer to King than to Jack, with the latter showing deference to the former two.
  • Arguments that King shouldn't have a bounty above the fifth Yonkou Luffy.
    • I'm reasonably confident that Beckmann would have a higher bounty than Luffy, so I don't have much credence in this argument as it should also apply to Beckmann.
  • Some conservatism factoring in my tendency to overestimate Zoro (and hence his opponents).

I pulled numbers right out of my ass, but those pulled numbers can serve as my priors, and I can try updating them as new information reveals itself.


My expected value for King's bounty would be:

(0.01*1.0)+(0.04*1.1)+(0.15*1.3)+(0.3*1.5)+(0.25*1.7)+(0.2*1.9)+(0.05*2) = 1.604.

So I guess I'm predicting 1.6B - 1.79B.
 
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