This is how Luffy vs Kizaru will play out
As we can see from the first clash, Luffy will be trying much harder than kizaru is from the start of the fight. Luffy is using acoc while kizaru hasn't even bothered using armanent haki or even his devil fruit yet. First phase in the fight will be about luffy convincing kizaru to respect him and start trying. Luffy will go gear 4 and will start to get the upper hand, kizaru shoudn't be able to easily block gear 4 acoc punches
Once kizaru acknowledges luffy, he will start using haki and will utilize his devil fruit powers more. Here is when kizaru will have the upper hand. Kizaru will start to easily dodge and counter snakeman. Luffy will realise gear 4 is not good enough, and that's when luffy goes gear 5. Now Luffy will gain the upper hand again. He will be able to tag a semi-serious kizaru even while kizaru is using light speed, and i expect kizaru to be suprised about the ridiculousness of gear 5.
After that, Kizaru will use his own awakening, but then oda shifts away from fight (oda doesnt want to show his awakening on panel until final war). When we come back to the fight, we will see it has been offscreened, with luffy on the ground knocked out. (This shouldnt suprise anyone, the one with the more recent powerup will always win). (This is why it wouldnt have made sense for kaido to awaken after luffy already did)
Kizaru will be charging a light beam ready to finish Luffy off, until he gets a call on the den den mushi, stating that saturn is missing (abducted by the bbp). This will force Kizaru to retreat, allowing the strawhats to escape.