Tobi Roppo Bounty Prediction Contest

What is the total bounty of the Tobi Roppo

  • >= 5 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 4.5 - 4.99 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 4.0 - 4.49 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3.5 - 3.99 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1.5 - 1.99 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1.0 - 1.49 billion

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .

Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#1
Introduction
While we wait for the next chapter, why not have fun predicting the bounties of the Tobi Roppo. I would offer points based on how close your bounty prediction was to the actual bounty. It is possible to receive negative points if your prediction was too far off. Your predictions would be graded on accuracy, so the lower the percentage error between your bounty prediction and the actual bounty, the more points you would gain.

To the victor go bragging rights.
:cheers:

If this contest is successful, I would consider holding bounty prediction contests for other groups:
  • Ex Shichibukai
  • Other Yonkou executives.
  • Post Wano Strawhats
  • Post Wano supernova

Scoring System
This is the basic scoring system. For each prediction you make, based on the accuracy of your prediction you would get.
  • < 10% error: 10 points
  • 10% - 19.99% error: 9 points
  • ...
  • 90% - 99.99% error: 1 point
  • 100% - 109.99% error: -1 point
  • 190% - 199.99% error: -9 points

The % error is calculated as:


This basically means:
  • Take the difference between the predicted bounty and the actual bounty.
  • Divide the result by the actual bounty.
  • Take the absolute value of the result.
  • Multiply by 100%.

In general, if your error is X%, then your points can be calculated via:


This basically means:
  • Divide your % error by 10.
  • Round down the result to the nearest whole number.
  • Subtract the new result from 10.

Predictions would only be recorded to the nearest million belli.

I would sum up your 6 inividual predictions to get a prediction for total bounty. It has twice as many points as the individual member predictions, so I would just multpily whatever your score would ordinarily be by 2.


Sample Scoring
Here's a sample calculation. Suppose John guesses 150 million belli for Page One, and Page One's actual bounty is 250 million.
  • Predicted bounty: 150 million
  • Actual bounty: 250 million

First we would calculate the % error:


Then we would calculate the points received:


So John would gain 6 points.
[

Penalty
Ideally, all predictions would be submitted before any Tobi Roppo bounties are revealed. However, some bounties may be revealed before some people have made their predictions. I wouldn't outright disqualify folks once the first Tobi Roppo bounty has been revealed, but anyone who submits their predictions after information has been revealed would have fewer points to gain. This is because knowing the bounty of a Tobi Roppo member provides information about the bounties of other members. For example if it's revealed that Who's Who's bounty is 500 million, I could guess that most of the Tobi Roppo have bounties below 500 million.

The penalty system I would use is as follows. If you predict for an undisclosed member after:
  • 1 Tobi Roppo bounty has been revealed: -1.5 points
  • 2 Tobi Roppo bounties have been revealed: -3.0 points
  • ...
  • 5 Tobi Roppo bounties have been revealed: -7.5 points

You can't predict for a member if their bounty in particular has been revealed.

So for the sample example above, if John made their prediction after two other Tobi Roppo members (say Who's Who and Sasaki) had their bounties revealed, then John would gain (6 - 3 = 3) points.

Predictions
To make a prediction, make a post as below:
Predictions format said:
Predictions
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
  • ...
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
It is important that you have "Predictions" bolded.

Please tag me when making your predictions. If you want to update a prediction, make a new post (also tagging me). DO NOT EDIT YOUR PREDICTION POSTS.

I recommend that you have prediction posts separate from other posts and that they contain only your predictions.

If I've seen your prediction, I will reply to it and acknowledge it. Here's the Google Sheets document where I would be tracking the predictions.

This is how it looks like:




Conclusion
This post may have been a lot to take in, so if you have any questions feel free to ask. The contest is for fun, and I'm not an unreasonable person, so don't hesitate to raise your concerns. Suggestions to improve the contest would also be appreciated.

The Google Sheets where I track points is visible to everyone, and the calculation of the scores would be handled by cell formulae, so there's not much need to worry about inaccurate scores. That said, I've disclosed the formulae I use so you can verify yourself. If you identify any discrepancies in scoring, do not hesitate to bring it to my attention.

May Fortuna smile upon you.




 
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Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#3
1.Who’s Who 900 mil
I'm not sure he would surpass the likes of Cracker TBH. BM's YC 4 was only 600M. WB's YC 4 (Ace) was only 550M. 940 M for a YC 4 is pretty high.

On another note, please use the correct format when making predictions:
Predictions
To make a prediction, make a post as below:
Predictions format said:
Predictions
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
  • ...
  • [NAME]: [BOUNTY]
  • Total: [BOUNTY]
It is important that you have "Predictions" bolded.

Please tag me when making your predictions. If you want to update a prediction, make a new post (also tagging me). DO NOT EDIT YOUR PREDICTION POSTS.

I recommend that you have prediction posts separate from other posts and that they contain only your predictions.
 

Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#5
1.Who’s Who 900 mil
2.Sasaki 840 mil
3.Pay pay 330 mil
4 ulti 400 mil
5. black maria 500 mil

Probably Who’s Who and Sasaki will have a lower bounty. These are just some wild guesses.
Are you not predicting for X-Drake?
 

Fleet Admiral Lee Hung

Conqueror of the Stars
β€Ž
#9
This should be fun lol. Let’s do this. I’m actually going to high ball the Flying Six a bit.

Predictions
Who’s Who-832,000,000
Sasaki-771,000,000
Black Maria-669,000,000 ( Ν‘~ ΝœΚ– Ν‘Β°)
Ulti-687,000,000
Pageone-591,000,000
X Drake-641,000,000 (I’m assuming his 220,000,000 is outdated
 
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Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#11
[Who's Who] |760m]
[Sasaki] [630m]
[Black Maria] [500m]
[X Drake] [450m]
[Ulti] [410m]
[Page One] [400m]

Total : [3.15b]
Noted.

This should be fun lol. Let’s do this. I’m actually going to low ball the Flying Six quite a bit, but I’m not underestimating them. I just don’t think their feats will have warranted super high bounties.

Predictions
Who’s Who-832,000,000
Sasaki-717,000,000
Black Maria-669,000,000 ( Ν‘~ ΝœΚ– Ν‘Β°)
Ulti-687,000,000
Pageone-591,000,000
X Drake-641,000,000 (I’m assuming his 220,000,000 is outdated
Lol, your lowest prediction was 591M. That's far from lowballing IMO. :yasu:

I can actually see your prediction for Maria being accurate. If for no other reason than that it would be funny.
 
#12
@Cinera
As always a nice thread(gonna write soon my though for King bounty)
My prediction and also though about two scenarios for the bounty for the flying six.

First of all we should look up for the last chapters.
Oda hyping up the flying six a lot, at most Sasaki and WhoΒ΄s Who.
Either he give them only a "fake" hype so they get defeated later or he really build up these as another monsters from the Beast pirates.
If the first scenario happen with Sasaki and WhoΒ΄s Who only having a fake hype around them and Oda donΒ΄t planning much with these characters,then my bounty prediction would be kinda this for the flying six:

WhoΒ΄s Who 750Mio
Sasaki 710Mio
Black 606Mio
Ulti 550Mio
xDrake 480Mio
Pageone 450Mio

The flying six would be kinda in the same range as Big momΒ΄s Veterans, with Pageone beeing the weakest and WhoΒ΄s Who beeing probably the strongest and probably little weaker then a YC4 lvl character, I donΒ΄t would expect much from the flying six fighers, they would kinda get little hype and end up in a fast defeat.

If he plan to take out a Calamity(as Jack who probably get defeated by Luffy and lose his calamity position) and plan to replace these with one of the Flying six, in that case I think that would increase the hype a lot about the flying six fighters and would put them into a another lvl, because they would kinda have a potential to became a calamity and donΒ΄t beeing far weaker as in my prediction above.
In that case I would bet my money on Sasaki as a new calamity while WhoΒ΄s Who probably get defeated by Zoro.
Overall the bounty prediction for the flying six if Oda want to do more for these characters(as replace them to a calamity position):

WhoΒ΄s Who 800-900Mio
Sasaki 800Mio-1.1B (probably replacing a calamity, would give him a bounty with 900Mio or above as a replace for Jack or any other calamity)
Black Marie 730Mio
Ulti 650Mio
Pageone 566Mio
xDrake 500Mio
 

Fleet Admiral Lee Hung

Conqueror of the Stars
β€Ž
#13
Lol, your lowest prediction was 591M. That's far from lowballing IMO. :yasu:

I can actually see your prediction for Maria being accurate. If for no other reason than that it would be funny.
I have a good feeling about these guys. Kaido actively wants to show off their strength to Big Mom, and these guys are already talking about competing with Calamities.

I don’t think we are looking a Sabo, who’s relatively low 600 million bounty shows that his accomplishments aren’t that fancy, or a Daifuku who’s 300 mil shows how he never leaves Tottoland for large scale piracy.

I think these guys are going to be New World Heavy Weights who were very notorious even before Kaido found them.
 

Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#14
Predictions
  • Who's Who: 800 million
  • Sasaki: 750 million
  • X - Drake: 600 million
  • Black Maria: 500 million
  • Ulti: 500 million
  • Pay Pay: 400 million


The above are random figures I threw out on Saturday (I updated Sasaki to 750M). I'm going to record them as is for now, but I may reevaluate in future.
 

RayanOO

Lazy is the way
β€Ž
#15
Predictions
  • Who's Who: 800 million
  • Sasaki: 700 million
  • X - Drake: 600 million
  • Black Maria: 500 million
  • Ulti: 500 million
  • Pay Pay: 400 million


The above are random figures I threw out on Saturday. I'm going to record them as is for now, but I may reevaluate in future.
Bege had a 300m bounty post skip
Law a 440m one while being a shishi
Kid a 470m while having the biggest one pre skip
Hawkins and Apoo range into the 300 too.

So I don't except Drake to have a bounty off the charts
 

Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#18
Bege had a 300m bounty post skip
Law a 440m one while being a shishi
Kid a 470m while having the biggest one pre skip
Hawkins and Apoo range into the 300 too.

So I don't except Drake to have a bounty off the charts
I think Oda hid his postskip bounty because he has one of the highest. We also haven't seen Urouge's post skip bounty, and he took down a 600M Yonkou Commander.
 

Cinera

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐒𝐫𝐒𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐜𝐑𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐭
β€Ž
#20
Who's Who β€” 560,000,000
Sasaki β€” 512,000,000
X Drake β€” 470,000,000
Ulti β€” 441,000,000
Black Maria β€” 428,000,000
Page1 β€” 403,000,000
You expect their highest bounties to be below their equivalents in BM's crew (Perospero (700M) and Snack (600M))? That's pretty surprising. So far, Kaido's crew has had members with substantially higher bounties:
  • YC 3: 1000M vs 860M
  • YC 2: 1320M vs 932M
  • YC 1: > 1320M vs 1057M
  • Captain: 4611M vs 4388M

Kaido has also been highlighted as someone who was able to rally many infamous pirates. This suggests that Kaido's crew should have pound for pound higher bounties than the Big Mom Pirates, and so far that has borne out. I can't really understand why you're offering such low predictions given that.


@RayanOO consider this an extension of my earlier answer.
 
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