Speculations Why Yamato will defeat Kaido (and Luffy will defeat Big Mom)

#1
Warning: This is a long post (>2500 words). If you don't want to consider the possibility that someone besides Luffy (or Zoro) will defeat Kaido, turn back now, it's not worth your time. I am also only talking about what happens before the raid ends, so nakama discussion is irrelevant here.

Yamato is a character that appeared suddenly in Onigashima and has been given a massive amount of attention since, both within and outside of the manga. Most of the explanations I've seen for Yamato’s creation (babysit, carry journal, hold off Kaido, become interim shogun, guard Wano as Momonosuke’s first Scabbard) are, in my opinion, not worthy of the attention Yamato has gotten. I believe that Yamato will do something in the raid that only they are capable of, and that couldn’t have been accomplished in a different way without them. In this post, I will argue that Yamato will (possibly with help) finish off Kaido, freeing Luffy to take down Big Mom.

Obviously, anyone who's ever consumed One Piece has no doubt that Luffy will return to finish Kaido off. My goal with this post is to demonstrate how it makes sense, narratively, for Yamato to win. Much of what I state is subjective, and can be interpreted differently to paint a different picture; after all, I do fully expect Luffy to win. Thus, I am fully aware that "X could foreshadow Z instead of Y"; I'm just trying to build one coherent picture. Each section is somewhat independent, but they all contribute to the larger picture.

Kaido is not Luffy’s enemy, Big Mom is
Kaido began his takeover of Wano nearly 30 years ago. By the time Oden and his retainers decided to fight him, it was too late, and they were defeated. Since then, the Scabbards, Momonosuke, Hiyori, and Yamato have been working to defeat Orochi, and by extension Kaido. Luffy, on the other hand, decided to join Law just because Kaido is an obstacle on his way to becoming Pirate King. The stakes have been rising for him as he befriended Kinemon, Momonosuke, and Tama, but he's still only been involved in the conflict for a matter of weeks. As a point of reference, Luffy hadn't been born when Oden, the Scabbards, and even Yamato challenged Kaido.

Big Mom and Luffy are mutually antagonistic. She kidnapped Sanji and tried to force him into a marriage, an act that made Luffy supported Bege's plan of assassination, something we've never seen him do. After defeating Katakuri, he promised that he would defeat Big Mom. Big Mom even came to Wano just to kill Luffy. It wouldn't make sense for anyone else to be her opponent.

This loss is different for Luffy
Luffy has lost many times, and people are quick to point out that he's always bounced back. However, typically when he loses, he loses in such a way that he's capable of bouncing back on his own, such as when Enel knocked him off the Ark Maxim, or when Crocodile dehydrated him and he cleverly rehydrated himself. When he loses completely, it's when he's fighting out of necessity: while running with Ace, against Crocodile the first time, against Megellan, and so on. This time, he confidently dismissed his allies, saying he could handle it, and he was utterly defeated. This is also the first time that someone died because of overconfidence; Kaido killed Kinemon immediately after defeating Luffy.

There's also no reason to believe that Luffy would be able to win in a 1v1 rematch. People talk about "gear fourth with CoC", "gear 5th", “gomu gomu no awakening”, and so on, but if he could do something like this, why didn't he do it before? He was fighting Kaido for "dozens of minutes", so there's no reason to think he didn't have time to try out any move that he wanted. If he only wins this time because Kaido is weaker now, why couldn't Yamato win for the same reason? Luffy also gained Ryuo leading up to the raid and CoC coating during the fight, so giving him another power up just because he lost would be extremely boring writing. One Piece isn't Dragon Ball or Bleach, Oda can find a better way for the alliance to win.

Yamato has lost to Kaido countless times. Why should this time be different?
  • A core theme in One Piece is doubt and belief. In Water 7, the Strawhats were destroyed by CP9 because they doubted Robin's motives for betraying them. Once they learned the truth and believed in themselves, they were unstoppable. Yamato is much the same: bound by literal and metaphorical chains, doubting whether Kaido would really kill his child, believing that everyone else that fought for Kozuki was dead, convinced that Kaido couldn't fall until the next generation of pirates arrives because of the journal.
  • Every time Yamato has faced Kaido in the past, it has been in a 1v1. In the raid so far, Kaido has already face: Kinemon, Raizo, Kikunojo, Izo, Kawamatsu, Denjiro, Nekomamushi, Inuarashi, Kid, Killer, Law, Zoro, and Luffy. We have seen all of these opponents do damage. While all of these opponents have lost, they have all inflicted damage to Kaido. Luffy in particular likely did serious internal damage to Kaido with his Advanced CoC attacks. Many have noted that Kaido may just be going easy on Yamato "because Yamato is his child, after all"... but what if the damage is just adding up?
  • Yamato has already admitted that "I know I can't win." Yamato has believed for 20 years that they could beat Kaido, despite failing time and again. Why now, when Kaido is at his weakest and Yamato their strongest, does Yamato suddenly feel they can't win? I've previously written that Yamato is trying to act in accordance with the writing in Oden's journal, and doesn't feel it's their place to defeat Kaido. However, there's an even simpler answer: Yamato can't win simply because Onigashima would fall with tragic consequences. Once Luffy returns with Momonosuke, they'll have a way to lift Onigashima, and Kaido can safely be defeated.
Foreshadowing
  • Yamato is Oda's answer to complaints about Vivi, Shirahoshi, Rebecca, and Momonosuke. They are weak, Yamato is strong. They cry from fear, Yamato cries being inspired. They're trying to help their fathers, Yamato is opposing Kaido. They ask Luffy for his help, Yamato offers to help Luffy. Luffy has to beat the boss for them, Yamato will beat the boss for Luffy.
  • When Yamato first spoke to Luffy, Yamato said things like "I want to fight on your side" and "I wish I could beat Kaido". As soon as the handcuffs came off, there was a change in demeanor: Yamato was willing to follow Luffy's plan, but Yamato began repeatedly expressing the desire to fight Kaido, and only Kaido.
  • When the fighting broke out in Chapter 987, Big Mom asked Luffy "why did you come here... don't tell me jokes about beating Kaido!" to which Luffy responded "No... That's not it... I came here to whoop the whole lot of you!"
  • When Yamato challenged Kaido, they said "I know I can't win... I'm going to hold you back!". This triggered massive shonen-trope alarm bells in me. Vegeta doesn't fight Frieza saying "I'll hold you off until Kakarot arrives!", he fights thinking he can win, even though we know he's just holding Frieza back. Even within One Piece: Robin fought Crocodile, Wyper fought Enel, Law fought Doflamingo. None of these people thought "I'm just holding them off for Luffy", they thought they could win. To me, Yamato's line is ripe for subversion.
  • The fight doesn't seem to be going well for Yamato, which is what we expect from someone fighting an opponent they can't beat. But how often do shonen fights proceed as wire-to-wire victories for either side? The fight is supposed to go back and forth, with the victor on the back foot before rallying back and dramatically winning. Of course, this could just be because Yamato is completely outmatched, but it could also be following the standard fight pattern. Even in the above, Robin, Wyper, and Law appeared to have the advantage before being defeated, and we have reason to believe Yamato is closer to Kaido than any of those were to their opponents.
  • Many people have pointed out that Yamato's line about joining Luffy could be a red herring. A red herring isn't "say one thing, then do the opposite", it's "say something distracting to take attention off of what's really happening". Indeed, the reveal of Yamato's fruit being a guardian spirit of Wano completely undermines the first line as a red herring... unless the entire staying/leaving discussion is itself a red herring. By floating the idea of Yamato joining Luffy, we've further written off the possibility of Yamato winning; after all, Luffy fights the main bad guy, his crew fights side battles, that's just how it goes.
  • In the Ace flashback, Yamato destroyed the dragon statue first, then Ace attacked it and took credit. This will be mirrored by Yamato defeating Kaido and Luffy getting credit with the World Government, as he led the alliance.
  • Luffy and Yamato have appeared paired in a lot of material (Vol 98 cover, Vol 99 inner cover, Vol 100 cover), mirroring the pairing of Big Mom and Kaido. In the Vol 99-100-101 combination, Luffy is in the middle, closest to Big Mom, while Yamato is on the right facing Kaido.
  • Yamato has been one of the central figures of Onigashima, with more chapter titles and final pages than anyone. Despite this, their content has been spread out, typically with 2-3 pages per chapter. This consistent presence is a standard buildup pattern for a character making a major move.
Luffy and Yamato have swapped roles
Luffy's role in One Piece fights is always the same: he gets put temporarily out of commission while others fight, allowing his fight to be the one that happens last. Stepping through some arcs:
  • Syrup Village: put to sleep by Jango
  • Arlong Park: body trapped under water
  • Little Garden: trapped under a boulder
  • Alabasta: dehydrated by Crocodile
  • Skypiea: trapped inside Nola
  • Enies Lobby: Rob Lucci's allies stay behind to fight while Lucci is leaving with Spandam
  • Thriller Bark: tricked by Moria's shadow
  • Fishman Island: distracted by the falling Noah
  • Dressrosa: Doflamingo leaves Luffy behind to activate the bird cage
In Onigashima, we've seen Luffy distracted by various enemies while working his way up to the roof, but he started this fight before any other major fights had concluded. After losing to Kaido in 1013, it seems like we were back on track: Luffy is working his way back to Kaido while everyone else finishes their fights.

Imagine, instead, if Luffy and Yamato had swapped places after meeting. Luffy meets Yamato, the last and strongest of those inspired by Oden, and decides to let them head to the roof with the Scabbards to try and get revenge. He feels responsible for Momonosuke, and decides to babysit him. Kaido is eventually victorious in Roof Piece, at which point Luffy heads to the roof. Everyone else is finishing their fights,so even if we saw Luffy on the back foot against Kaido, as we currently see Yamato, we would have no doubt that he'd get the focus next and come out victorious.

In shonen, and really any dramatic medium where there are fights, the victor is the one who arrives last. We're meant to expect that this just means Luffy will come back... it's what he always does. However, he's now lost to Kaido more times than any other opponent. He's had his chances, as has everyone else that has challenged Kaido, and they've all lost. Yamato's has arrived last, and now it's their chance.

How it could happen
  • The Momotaro theory is where people currently put the most weight, with Momonosuke having enlisted the help of a monkey (Luffy), a dog (Yamato), and a Pheasant (Marco?) to defeat Kaido. If this is the basis for the final fight, then we don't have any reason to think that the monkey should be the one who wins, as opposed to any other helper, or Momo in particular. Also, if the Pheasant is someone other than Marco (Zoro or Kid, for example), then the Dog is the last one to get a chance to get a crack at Kaido, and so it'd be reasonable for them to be the final victor.
  • Toki's (Oden's?) prophecy of the moon unaware of the dawn remains a problem. All of the Strawhats are gathering near the live floor, which could be setting up for the nine of them assisting Yamato in defeating Kaido. The Strawhats could head to the roof, however I think it's more likely that Kaido and Yamato come through the roof down to the live floor. This was foreshadowed when Yamato escaped through the floor with Momonosuke, and when Who's Who fired Pistol Fangs through the floor to the next level. Yamato could then beat Kaido with the help of the Strawhats, while Luffy beats Big Mom in parallel. Yamato (the moon, a wolf) will then have fulfilled their purpose, casting nine shadows on a night woven of 20 years.
Why this doesn't undermine Luffy as the alliance leader
There are two Yonko class enemies in Onigashima, Kaido and Big Mom. Luffy lost the endurance test against Kaido, but before he lost his last battle, he learned exactly what he needed to beat Big Mom: advanced CoC attacks. Big Mom has been made to look foolish repeatedly (Franky drove over her, Robin rolled her away, Kid... hit her with a big rock), but there's little evidence to suggest that she's actually taken damage. The reason for this is her protective coating of Conquerors Haki. Instead of being forced to circumvent this obstacle as was attempted at Whole Cake Island, Luffy is now capable of overwhelming this barrier with his own Haki.

Yamato will have defeated Kaido after 14 opponents, including Luffy, have weakened him, and possibly with the help of others. Luffy, on the other hand, will have beaten Big Mom in a 1v1. Power scalers may argue that Yamato's accomplishment is greater by minimizing the contribution of the first 14 opponents, but I would argue that One Piece isn't a story where fighting capability can be summarized by a single number. Luffy's fighting style (short burst of high power with a cooldown) is not well suited to taking down someone with the durability of Kaido. Yamato, another Mythical Zoan, is much more suited to finishing off a weakened Kaido. Thus, even though Luffy won't have defeated Kaido, there won't be any question that Luffy is number one.

Bonus Material (doesn’t really fit with the rest of the narrative)
Lesson learned from Oden: One of Oden’s greatest shortcomings was that he routinely attempted to shoulder every burden himself, culminating in him literally holding the scabbards out of the boiling oil. Luffy has similarly tried and failed to defeat Kaido himself twice. When the time comes, Luffy will have to put the same trust in his crew that they put in him. This could mean letting them help him beat Kaido, but it could also mean putting aside his beef with Kaido to protect the alliance from Big Mom, while his crew supports Yamato in defeating Kaido.

Kaido’s Intentions: We know that Kaido wants to die in battle. Many have theorized that Kaido has positioned himself as ruler of Wano with the goal of being defeated by Joyboy. However, the prophecy says that Wano needs "to open its ports before the day that Joyboy appears" (Ch968 P7). If Yamato were only meant to be used as a puppet ruling Wano, there's no obvious reason why he would have had to humor Yamato's rebellious challenges. Kaido may actually have been training Yamato to become a strong enemy that could help take him down.

Conclusion
If you made it this far, I thank you. It's break week, so I thought I'd try to take a big shot with this guess. I'm a gambler, so I would still put my money on "haha Luffy go brrrr", but if you gave me odds I'd put money on Yamato over anyone not named Luffy. Regardless, I thought there was enough evidence to have a fun discussion during these trying break week times.
 
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