The only person who can objectively look at the game from a bird's eye view is the host. Otherwise it's merely hubris on your part. For one, you make several assumptions - that scum are confident, that scum are active, that scum have thread pull, that scum feel like they can control wagons... while I would agree it's best not to assume the opposite is true, assuming that scum can just do whatever carte blanche, on THIS site of all sites, where 90% of players can't really play scum or don't want to, just doesn't hold up to reason. Like I said - give me a logical basis that explains why they can't be scum together based off of what they've said, because I no reason to put any stock into your tea leaf reading.
As for the second point, given that your premise requires me to have changed my mind, a position I haven't given nor implied, then I think that addresses it well enough.