Not ridicolous at all, I agree with you.
As
@dirtyLarry pointed out, Oda always proceeds with increments of 50, 100 or 150 (only in Wano) chapters. Egghead has been covered in 75 chapters, more or less, and the total count of Egghead + Elbaf will be 150 chapters at least imo, meaning 75 chapters for Elbaf and the Arc ending with chapter 1200.
So we can estabilish that we'll move away from Elbaf around CH. 1200 (best case scenario) which is 2+ years from now, with the current pacing... 2027.
After that, there's still AT THE VERY LEAST:
• Lodestar
• Laughtale
• New Marineford/Mary Geoise
• Epilogue
These are all very important Arcs that will take some time. Lodestar is the only one I can see with 50 chapters only tbh. A total of 200 chapters minimum (after Elbaf) is still needed to wrap things up. Keep in mind that there are other flashback that we'll probably see, the most important one being Joyboy's in the Void Century. That alone could take a couple of volumes by itself, maybe even 3...
Overall, there are a lot of things to cover and some of them we don't even realize yet.
One Piece will either end with 1400 chapters (fast pace) or 1500 chapters (slower pace).
