Worstgen
Cinera
@Nidai_Kitetsu: the above is a honest representation (albeit a summary) of my beliefs regarding Zoro Defeating Kaido (ZDK). However, I distinguish between my confidence levels within an argument, and my meta confidence levels in the validity of the argument itself.
Cinera
Within the argument: "Zoro shall surpass Oden and replicate Ryuma's legend", my confidence in ZDK is very high.
Cinera
But my meta confidence in the validity of the "Zoro shall surpass Oden and replicate Ryuma's legend" argument is not as high.
Cinera
I still have some reservations:
* Will Oda permit Zoro to upstage Luffy in the climax of the Vs Yonkou saga?
* Will Oda permit Zoro to properly replicate Ryuma's legend or will he satisfy himself with some pale imitation of Ryuma's feats?
* Will Oda permit Zoro to properly fulfill the will he inherited?
Etc.
* Will Oda permit Zoro to upstage Luffy in the climax of the Vs Yonkou saga?
* Will Oda permit Zoro to properly replicate Ryuma's legend or will he satisfy himself with some pale imitation of Ryuma's feats?
* Will Oda permit Zoro to properly fulfill the will he inherited?
Etc.
Cinera
And well, my priors for Zoro defeating Kaido before any updates should be very low. The only arc antagonist Zoro has defeated was Captain Morgan, and that was for an arc whose importance pales in comparison to Wano.
Cinera
So before updating at all, the prior for Zoro defeating Kaido would be < 5%. There's a lot of evidence in favour, so you do end up making sharp updates in favour of Zoro defeating Kaido, but you are essentially still starting out with < 5% credence, it's not clear there is enough evidence yet to make the jump, from < 5% to > 50%.
Cinera
All that said, I think ZDK is much more likely than ZKK.
Cinera
Oda killing an arc antagonist has never happened before in the history of OP, so the prior there is even lower. Zoro also kills far less frequently than he merely defeats his opponents. So the starting prior for ZKK may even end up below < 2%.
Cinera
Then there are some other concerns as well:
* Reservations on a Strawhat killing a prominent character
* Reservations on Yamato joining a crew with her father's killer
* Reservations on a Strawhat killing a prominent character
* Reservations on Yamato joining a crew with her father's killer
Cinera
While I shill ZKK, it's mostly out of loyalty, or belief as attire. I'm a Zoro fan and there's a strong case to be made for ZKK, so I'll make it.
Cinera
I think ZDK is far more likely, and all the arguments I've made for ZKK apply to ZDK as well. I've never made the argument that Zoro kills an already defeated Kaido. While it's a possible occurrence, it's one I consider incredibly unlikely.