Hello WG! First theory on this site and decided to focus on a lingering question that not enough people have talked about! Here's my crack at it, and I've placed a TLDR section at the end if you're strapped on time.
In order for this theory to work, I have to go under the assumption that Xebec was a dark agent of chaos and not exactly the most upstanding person to be around. I'm totally ok if this turns out wrong since we know how much the World Gov likes their cover ups and Marines can only tell their side of the story. A proper flashback will resolve this.
The Timeline
The best way to explore this is through Brook. He was 38 years old at the time of the Rumbar Pirates flashback, which would make it 52 years ago (in post-time skip) from the present time. Brook had commented that Roger was a rookie at the time, which meant that he met Rayleigh during his early 20s. Now for some quick math.
At some point between 52 and 44 years ago, Roger must have had his first encounter with Xebec since he would already have earned his first bounty and made a name for himself. We currently know nothing about Xebec's past or why he decided to become a pirate. Some theories point to an Ohara archaeologist's past, but we'll get an answer through Blackbeard, I'm sure (in SBS, his hobby was gambling and historical research). We're at a golden opportunity to do a Rocks flashback with Garp captured and Pudding on the way with her memory manipulation abilities.
I don't believe that Xebec immediately declared his desire to become the ruler of the world, but that he always had the dream in his pocket. It was his ultimate goal, and he would ramp up his activities over the years. Like all pirate crews in the beginning, he needed money and manpower. This is not like the Doflamingo flashback, where certain people saw his CoC haki and desired to make him their king by enabling his behavior. Not everyone would be as convinced to follow some "crazy guy" into taking down the WG right from the beginning.
Also, who's to say that Xebec wasn't already a pirate captain of his own (unnamed) crew and decided to merge them together when forming the Rocks Pirates?
This is where we come to this infamous, in my opinion, widely misunderstood panel. I don't believe Xebec was Roger's "greatest" enemy simply due to power or influence. Given the friendship that Roger forged with WB, it's more about the ambitions. I am sure, even if Oda doesn't show this, that Roger had a moment similar to Luffy's during Blackbeard's speech about dreams in Mock Town. He was serious, listening, and analyzing—almost as if he knew how dangerous this guy was or would become. Characters with high emotional intelligence are good at this; we've seen it time and time again. Maybe Roger and Xebec were also two sides of the same coin?
At least 44 years ago, the Rocks Pirates formed up on Hachinosu Island for their moneymaking schemes and other unmentioned plans. From what I've gathered in Kaido's flashback and with Blackbeard's activities during the Egghead arc, it's clear that Beehive Island acted as one of the only safe havens for pirates and wanted criminals in the New World. This was in addition to recruiting through Davy Back Fights or other means. At the same time, Beehive Island was a great staging point to launch various heists and then return to it at the end of the operation. Almost a little too familiar..
Could the New Onigashima Project and Crocodile's Operation Utopia both meant to emulate and foreshadow examples of pirates trying to go beyond just occupying their territories? It would be a nice touch if true, especially now with Blackbeard using Koby or Garp as a stepping stone to infiltrate the WG.
Pirate Island Fullalead/Hachinosu/Beehive has several inspirations:
39 years ago, Roger and his crew managed to reach the penultimate island through conventional means. It is there that he learned about the existence of the road poneglypths, their purpose, and the existence of an ancient kingdom. With the God Valley Incident happening a year later, there is more than enough time for them to visit various locations and eventually head to the West Blue, where it was located.
Which leads me to the next point..
Chapter 1096
We got another tease of the God Valley Incident and the parties involved here. Let's pay special attention to both Roger and Rocks here. What do you think this implies?
A whole year? What went down between Lodestar Island and God Valley? I have a few suggestions:
I found this part super interesting. If what Kong said here was true, then Roger was not really after the special treasure in God Valley the way Rocks Pirates did. This would strengthen the idea that Roger usually kept to his own business with his crew and valued freedom of travel, happiness, and adventure more than spreading chaos, fear, conquest, etc. A bit more of that classic pirate trope, but still romanticized. On the other hand, the Rocks Pirates had no issues picking fights with anyone they encountered, regardless of their affiliation.
Overall, Rocks had to be stopped at this point. Xebec had become too infamous and destructive through his actions without much repercussion. What Roger previously considered his rival became too much on his plate to handle or tolerate any longer. I wholeheartedly believe that he is the dark side of the D clan, probably similar to the moon concept or "dusk vs. dawn," and would tie in Blackbeard nicely, especially with Chapter 1107.
I hope you all enjoyed reading this and are able to take something away from it! Feel free to comment below if there is anything more to add or if you disagree.
TL;DR
Roger was constantly harassed by Xebec from the time they first met, either because he refused to ally or join up or because their goals and world views clashed too much. The reason Roger went to God Valley wasn't because he just wanted the smoke and/or the treasures. Instead, Xebec had become an existential threat by this point, threatening Roger's goals and his freedom. This would help explain why he decided to team up with Garp and his friendly relationship with WB. It would also give us insight on how piracy changed as a whole before the great age started. We'll continue to explore some of this through Blackbeard in the near future.
:cheers:
EDIT: Fixed broken image links
In order for this theory to work, I have to go under the assumption that Xebec was a dark agent of chaos and not exactly the most upstanding person to be around. I'm totally ok if this turns out wrong since we know how much the World Gov likes their cover ups and Marines can only tell their side of the story. A proper flashback will resolve this.
The Timeline
The best way to explore this is through Brook. He was 38 years old at the time of the Rumbar Pirates flashback, which would make it 52 years ago (in post-time skip) from the present time. Brook had commented that Roger was a rookie at the time, which meant that he met Rayleigh during his early 20s. Now for some quick math.
- Roger's age at the time of his death, 24 years ago: 53
- 52 (rookie era) - 24 (time of death) = 28 years of alleged piracy
- 53 (Roger's age) - 28 = 25 years old. That was only when he was known as a rookie, not necessarily when the journey began. Nevertheless, this reinforces the point that Roger would have started his pirate career sometime in his early 20's, a bit later than Ace or Luffy would.

At some point between 52 and 44 years ago, Roger must have had his first encounter with Xebec since he would already have earned his first bounty and made a name for himself. We currently know nothing about Xebec's past or why he decided to become a pirate. Some theories point to an Ohara archaeologist's past, but we'll get an answer through Blackbeard, I'm sure (in SBS, his hobby was gambling and historical research). We're at a golden opportunity to do a Rocks flashback with Garp captured and Pudding on the way with her memory manipulation abilities.

I don't believe that Xebec immediately declared his desire to become the ruler of the world, but that he always had the dream in his pocket. It was his ultimate goal, and he would ramp up his activities over the years. Like all pirate crews in the beginning, he needed money and manpower. This is not like the Doflamingo flashback, where certain people saw his CoC haki and desired to make him their king by enabling his behavior. Not everyone would be as convinced to follow some "crazy guy" into taking down the WG right from the beginning.
Also, who's to say that Xebec wasn't already a pirate captain of his own (unnamed) crew and decided to merge them together when forming the Rocks Pirates?

This is where we come to this infamous, in my opinion, widely misunderstood panel. I don't believe Xebec was Roger's "greatest" enemy simply due to power or influence. Given the friendship that Roger forged with WB, it's more about the ambitions. I am sure, even if Oda doesn't show this, that Roger had a moment similar to Luffy's during Blackbeard's speech about dreams in Mock Town. He was serious, listening, and analyzing—almost as if he knew how dangerous this guy was or would become. Characters with high emotional intelligence are good at this; we've seen it time and time again. Maybe Roger and Xebec were also two sides of the same coin?

At least 44 years ago, the Rocks Pirates formed up on Hachinosu Island for their moneymaking schemes and other unmentioned plans. From what I've gathered in Kaido's flashback and with Blackbeard's activities during the Egghead arc, it's clear that Beehive Island acted as one of the only safe havens for pirates and wanted criminals in the New World. This was in addition to recruiting through Davy Back Fights or other means. At the same time, Beehive Island was a great staging point to launch various heists and then return to it at the end of the operation. Almost a little too familiar..
Could the New Onigashima Project and Crocodile's Operation Utopia both meant to emulate and foreshadow examples of pirates trying to go beyond just occupying their territories? It would be a nice touch if true, especially now with Blackbeard using Koby or Garp as a stepping stone to infiltrate the WG.

Pirate Island Fullalead/Hachinosu/Beehive has several inspirations:
- Tortuga Island, Haiti
- Port Royal, Jamaica
- Nassau, New Providence Island. Real-life Blackbeard enjoyed the place, was one of his base of operations.

39 years ago, Roger and his crew managed to reach the penultimate island through conventional means. It is there that he learned about the existence of the road poneglypths, their purpose, and the existence of an ancient kingdom. With the God Valley Incident happening a year later, there is more than enough time for them to visit various locations and eventually head to the West Blue, where it was located.

Which leads me to the next point..
Chapter 1096
We got another tease of the God Valley Incident and the parties involved here. Let's pay special attention to both Roger and Rocks here. What do you think this implies?

A whole year? What went down between Lodestar Island and God Valley? I have a few suggestions:
- Xebec tracked Roger down again, and they had a clash. The outcome was either a stalemate, a defeat, or important enough that Roger was itching for round 2.
- The Rocks pirates went to Lodestar Island after Roger and learned about the poneglypths and their importance. I'm doubtful about this one, though. Perhaps it was just Xebec himself who traveled there in the past and already knew what to do.
- Roger realized the implications after being at Lodestar; that's why he had to shift gears and begin figuring out a route to the final island. He understood some of the concepts through the voice of all things but couldn't piece them together yet. Xebec could also have made a remark about the "D" lineage during one of their encounters...


I found this part super interesting. If what Kong said here was true, then Roger was not really after the special treasure in God Valley the way Rocks Pirates did. This would strengthen the idea that Roger usually kept to his own business with his crew and valued freedom of travel, happiness, and adventure more than spreading chaos, fear, conquest, etc. A bit more of that classic pirate trope, but still romanticized. On the other hand, the Rocks Pirates had no issues picking fights with anyone they encountered, regardless of their affiliation.
Overall, Rocks had to be stopped at this point. Xebec had become too infamous and destructive through his actions without much repercussion. What Roger previously considered his rival became too much on his plate to handle or tolerate any longer. I wholeheartedly believe that he is the dark side of the D clan, probably similar to the moon concept or "dusk vs. dawn," and would tie in Blackbeard nicely, especially with Chapter 1107.
I hope you all enjoyed reading this and are able to take something away from it! Feel free to comment below if there is anything more to add or if you disagree.
TL;DR
Roger was constantly harassed by Xebec from the time they first met, either because he refused to ally or join up or because their goals and world views clashed too much. The reason Roger went to God Valley wasn't because he just wanted the smoke and/or the treasures. Instead, Xebec had become an existential threat by this point, threatening Roger's goals and his freedom. This would help explain why he decided to team up with Garp and his friendly relationship with WB. It would also give us insight on how piracy changed as a whole before the great age started. We'll continue to explore some of this through Blackbeard in the near future.
:cheers:
EDIT: Fixed broken image links
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