Shin could win with plot armor/Ouki weight but I don't think he'd win round 1
Way I see it, Earl Shi wouldn’t have given Shin a choice but to win in the first round. He had the numbers and wouldn’t have relented until he was satisfied. Kill or be killed.
Under those circumstances, I don’t see Shin losing.
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The manga made it clear that Ouhon was able to exploit Earl Shi's weakness in the first place because he caught him off guard with his form. In other words he just happened to have a fighting style that is the best suited for the job (high level combat analysis plus deadly precision).
It's explained in detail here:
-snip-
The last quote is especially important, since Ouhon says the weakness is fatal specifically against his ability to penetrate a single point.
Your argument wrongly presumes the dynamics of Earl Shi vs Ou Hon, a match up of spear versus spear, can be extrapolated and applied to a wildly different hypothetical match up of Earl Shi vs Shin. There is no logic to that.
A match between top tier spears users like Earl Shi and Ou Hon is going to come down to tiny margins of error and openings. Neither is trying to close the distance or crush the other with their strength. It's about speed and precision from a managed distance.
Whether Shin uses sword or glaive, he's not looking to penetrate with the tip of his spear, he's looking to cut down. Angles, not thrusts.
Earl Shi despite not having the will to live was blocking and dodging high speed barages of strikes just fine.
Earl Shi remains impressive, but his speed wasn't unlike anything Shin had seen before from other speed demons like Kyou Kai, Rin Ko and Hou Ken.
Shin is a glaive user that relies on wide strikes, but at this point he's raw strength is not suficient to take down opponent of this caliber. Even someone like Batei was able to throw him around few years later.
You're being more than just a
little dishonest here and I think you know that.
The one solid blow Ba Tei landed was when he caught Shin off guard defending Ka Ryo Ten in the midst of an ambush.
Ba Tei would
not have survived that encounter if he didn't flee. It's wild you complain of Earl Shi disrespect when you framed this encounter the way you did.
In the same war Ouhon was casually blocking his two handed strike with one hand. So somehow it's hard for me to believe Shin can overpower Earl Shi who was far above this Ouhon in terms of power. And as was pointed out they were in fact fighting seriously.
This is somehow more dishonest.
For one, Shin was not taking that match remotely serious.
Gai Mou is far above Earl Shi in strength and he had to recognise Shin's strength despite his inferior technique.
You cannot credibly justify the notion Ou Hon possessed similar physical strength to Shin, never mind superior. That's outright laughable. Shin is and has always been a freak unto himself. Just look at his battles against Ran Kai, Rin Ko and Hou Ken (Sai) prior to Choyou. Ou Hon does not have the feats to compete with this.
Earl Shi was strong, but I highly doubt he
or his spear could've withstood Shin's blows for an extended period. Shin is faster, stronger, more agile, more durable and has far superior weight compared to Ou Hon.
In the event Shin would have had to switch to the sword to compensate, that would just suit him better. Unlike Ou Hon, he is used to having to close the distance, and he is used to facing extremely fast opponents.
