In my opinion he forget one of the major points who could speak for the raid failing, Hawkins.
Basil Hawkiins is someone who only join someone if he know they gonna win, when Kaido arrive at his basement where Kid and Apoo where, he not decide to fight Kaido because he know the chance of winning would be 0%. So he choose Kaido alliance and betray because he not see a winning. In that case Hawkins is everytime site on his position which he predict with his cards. In that case if his cards saying he gonna survive, he not even fear a Admiral. Same would happen to Kaido, if his cards predict he would survive the fight or even winning, he would never join Kaido:
Understandig about his future sight who was always right, Hawkins just believe in his predict.
And Hawkins was the one with the "one month" predict to Zoro and Luffy, that was the first point who could speak for a lose of the raid. However we can add now a second point who speaks for a raid failure, in that case again Hawkins:
xDrake ask him about to join the alliance and taking out Kaido, betray him. At same time Hawkins most like predict the future of the war and who gonna win. In that case if the alliance would have a % over 30, im sure Hawkins would use it. However he don´t believe it much and even check up the future of someone, I doubt that he check up Kaido otherwise he would betray him and that is the point with Mr Morj should use as argument. If the raid would not fail, why Hawkins would not betray Kaido right now? His whole attitude is based on his card predict, if his cards see a winning against Kaido, why he not betray him? In that case I believe the cards say the different route, because that Hawkins not betray the beast pirates and take still on Kaido side. It is not about liking someone or not, Hawkins just believe in his cards and im sure the guy who gonna have the 1% is someone from the alliance and Hawkins not joining them because he don´t see they winning the war.
That would be actually a great argument who would speak for a raid failure, Mr Morj should use that argument.