[FNZ] Salem of Lies Round 5 - Throne of Lies III
- Thread starter Yuelyn
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- Tags #lara #larimo #lris #trisbesthost
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@oddoddfruit can i have ur thoughts on the active players. starting with kagura who i think shud atleast be jailed if not lynched
Up to and including Page 30:
After giving a cursory look over the roles, there seem to be Good Kings, Bad Kings, and Neutral Kings all possibly in play. I'm not sure where the later 50/50 comes from, exactly.
"most likely" isn't really an argument though. The fact that he *might* not be is enough reason to not assume that he is. And with that assumption removed, then discussion on his alignment becomes fair game. Claiming that he's "most likely" town only shuts down that angle.
I wouldn't say that. The King should be held to the same standards anyone is.
Given that it's the Random Voting Stage, and you're experienced enough to know that that is a thing, what do you think you're going to get from this angle?
I don't agree here. Knowing the likely number of indies can help inform setup speculation which while being a comfortable place for scum to reside in, does help start the game off. Better than fluffing and spam, at least.
I mean, it's after like one page. I'm not sure what exactly you expected, or what you have done to get this game moving.
In other words, you don't have a reason, you want to sell it as a viable case without it actually being one, so you use vague terms like "natural feeling", and "you appear to do (x)". Noted.
I assume a setup that starts with a Bad King would adequately accommodate this, so why is there any more of an issue?
The Butler can Poison from Day 4, which means 3 consecutive lynches where a scum-aligned King gets a considerable amount of say on. Your idea of "not an issue" and mine are clearly very different.
There are negatives to every lynch. And besides, it's not like any Day 1 lynch will be ripe with information, at least not without several false positives to go along with it.
Again with the "zero info". If he flips scum then we get a scum flip which is pretty great all told.
Sure, but that would also give him an avenue to appear to be helpful and contributive, without actually being either, simply through familiarity. Not a reason to town read him and in fact it should be a reason to apply even more scrutiny to what he's saying.
It's not bad logic per se, as it's a generic town tell, and scum tending not to act like you would expect scum to act doesn't invalidate this.
Light's push was marginal at best, and this is the second time you've asked for other opinions without doing anything with it yourself.
See: Page 2.
"You'd love the current Super Role Madness game going on then, Sis!"
I'm in even more, and somehow not burnt out at all.
So why is this FoS-worthy, then? You don't know anyone's alignment if you're town yet, aside from your own.
I assume she interpreted it as two scum mates interacting with one another.
So then, you don't really agree.
It was 6 pages.
I'm at work too, and somehow it took me about 4 minutes to get to this point and have this part typed up (4 minutes of actually playing, not 4 real life minutes).
You gave no reasons for any of these, and you probably will be "considering" what the consensus wants, because that's kinda how this works.
And not Zemmi, Odd or Light?
I mean, this is patently false. If there is a 50% chance of lynching scum, then this can be conveyed as a fraction as 1/2. With the average scum numbers accounting for somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 of the total player numbers, we can convey the chances of lynching into them statistically as 25%-33%. That means the first common denominator is 24. Ergo, the chances of randomly lynching scum typically is between 6/24 and 8/24, with an average of 7/24. If Gambit indeed gives a 50/50, then the chances for getting a scum flip with lynching him increase to 12/24. However, the drawback to mislynching Gambit means no lynch next phase. The chances of lynching scum then decrease to 0/24. The average there being 6/24. In other words, if we're going to rely strictly on probability, the chances that lynching Gambit present are about the same as the worst case if we were lynching randomly.
If you're "observing", then you should have observations. Where are they?
Ah, non-existent. Got it.
I mean, on that logic, why not just randomly select 4 players from the sign ups. Statistically-speaking, there will be one scum in there.
And what does this mean, exactly? What posts are giving you that vibe?
I kind of like this post - but do you believe anyone is going to blindly follow Ekko's town reads?
Oh please. I have over 400 in one game, 130 and counting in another, 350 in another entering LyLo... toughen up.
More like it, yes.
It's curious to me that you have had the exact same read as Zemmi, but never made mention of this to this point.
I like this post. Shows resistance to sheep mentality. I expect nothing less, of course, but still.
Why? Out of everything, why is this where you start off?
Eh, I don't see how you've changed anything playstyle wise. Are you looking for different things in posts, or...?
I think it comes down to "be more assertive" with your opinions, really.
Quite the opposite. Scum tend to go with the flow, because this stems from a desire to not wish to go against the town consensus, lest they stand out and have undue attention brought unto them. Sadly there are false positives present here, but it is a scum tell.
I agree it was pretty poorly reasoned as to why it should be ignored, but I'm not sure why you are assuming paranoia must be present.
Eh, I mostly agree with you here.
Good to note your position is pro-mechanics talk. I'm of the same mind.
"taking responsibility" doesn't really mean anything, though.
What part of his case convinced you, then?
Right, so you're not pro-mechanics talk.
Assuming you meant Town, I agree.
Not sure why I quoted this. Mistake, maybe.
Why not do so, then?
I don't know any of them. I guess you have a thing for space buns, though.
Unlikely, given it's obviously a typo.
Speaking of typos, I assume you mean "isn't" sleeping?
I mean, not really. When we're talking about possibilities, them being in play doesn't mean they're given equal weighting.
Or indeed, any country amongst the Oceanic peninsula.
I mean, I don't know if one game should be the ultimate litmus test, either.
Did you really believe that this vote would go anywhere?
I'll note that Zemmi hasn't actually voted back to either.
Gottem.
I mean, not really. You've created a slew of false positives around his discussion, not much of it is alignment indicative, and you distancing yourself from the result here is duly noted.
I mean, it was obviously a typo. Given that you also made one, you should know that they're eminently possible to make.
Why are you asusming more familiarity with the setup than Light, exactly?
If you're town, is it really a waste?
Obviously, as you've seen several times today if you'd been reading.
I mean, you not being here is at least partly to blame too. Own your own mistakes first, rather than project them onto others.
Is this role certain to be in the game? I would assume yes if the King is bad, right?
If the Butler claim checks out, I tend to agree actually.
They're clearly not vouching for Light.
Currently have Town on Zemmi and Ekko
Null on Kagura
Scum on Gambit and Melkor
After giving a cursory look over the roles, there seem to be Good Kings, Bad Kings, and Neutral Kings all possibly in play. I'm not sure where the later 50/50 comes from, exactly.
"most likely" isn't really an argument though. The fact that he *might* not be is enough reason to not assume that he is. And with that assumption removed, then discussion on his alignment becomes fair game. Claiming that he's "most likely" town only shuts down that angle.
I wouldn't say that. The King should be held to the same standards anyone is.
Given that it's the Random Voting Stage, and you're experienced enough to know that that is a thing, what do you think you're going to get from this angle?
I don't agree here. Knowing the likely number of indies can help inform setup speculation which while being a comfortable place for scum to reside in, does help start the game off. Better than fluffing and spam, at least.
I mean, it's after like one page. I'm not sure what exactly you expected, or what you have done to get this game moving.
In other words, you don't have a reason, you want to sell it as a viable case without it actually being one, so you use vague terms like "natural feeling", and "you appear to do (x)". Noted.
I assume a setup that starts with a Bad King would adequately accommodate this, so why is there any more of an issue?
The Butler can Poison from Day 4, which means 3 consecutive lynches where a scum-aligned King gets a considerable amount of say on. Your idea of "not an issue" and mine are clearly very different.
The issues with lynching or pursuing a lynch on Gambit here tho are:
> His lynch won't yield much info. If he's a Bad King, he doesn't know his mates nor do they know him, thus everyone would pile up to vote him.
> He could potentially waste two days, which I am checking with the hosts now.
If we believe he's a Good King then he could waste upto 3 days potentially, and certainly 2 days, as we would lose the option of a lynch the next day after he has been lynched.
> His lynch won't yield much info. If he's a Bad King, he doesn't know his mates nor do they know him, thus everyone would pile up to vote him.
> He could potentially waste two days, which I am checking with the hosts now.
If we believe he's a Good King then he could waste upto 3 days potentially, and certainly 2 days, as we would lose the option of a lynch the next day after he has been lynched.
Again with the "zero info". If he flips scum then we get a scum flip which is pretty great all told.
Sure, but that would also give him an avenue to appear to be helpful and contributive, without actually being either, simply through familiarity. Not a reason to town read him and in fact it should be a reason to apply even more scrutiny to what he's saying.
It's not bad logic per se, as it's a generic town tell, and scum tending not to act like you would expect scum to act doesn't invalidate this.
Light's push was marginal at best, and this is the second time you've asked for other opinions without doing anything with it yourself.
See: Page 2.
"You'd love the current Super Role Madness game going on then, Sis!"
So why is this FoS-worthy, then? You don't know anyone's alignment if you're town yet, aside from your own.
I assume she interpreted it as two scum mates interacting with one another.
So then, you don't really agree.
It was 6 pages.
I'm at work too, and somehow it took me about 4 minutes to get to this point and have this part typed up (4 minutes of actually playing, not 4 real life minutes).
You gave no reasons for any of these, and you probably will be "considering" what the consensus wants, because that's kinda how this works.
And not Zemmi, Odd or Light?
I mean, this is patently false. If there is a 50% chance of lynching scum, then this can be conveyed as a fraction as 1/2. With the average scum numbers accounting for somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 of the total player numbers, we can convey the chances of lynching into them statistically as 25%-33%. That means the first common denominator is 24. Ergo, the chances of randomly lynching scum typically is between 6/24 and 8/24, with an average of 7/24. If Gambit indeed gives a 50/50, then the chances for getting a scum flip with lynching him increase to 12/24. However, the drawback to mislynching Gambit means no lynch next phase. The chances of lynching scum then decrease to 0/24. The average there being 6/24. In other words, if we're going to rely strictly on probability, the chances that lynching Gambit present are about the same as the worst case if we were lynching randomly.
I'm observing right now 
Ah, non-existent. Got it.
I mean, on that logic, why not just randomly select 4 players from the sign ups. Statistically-speaking, there will be one scum in there.
And what does this mean, exactly? What posts are giving you that vibe?
I kind of like this post - but do you believe anyone is going to blindly follow Ekko's town reads?
Oh please. I have over 400 in one game, 130 and counting in another, 350 in another entering LyLo... toughen up.
More like it, yes.
It's curious to me that you have had the exact same read as Zemmi, but never made mention of this to this point.
I like this post. Shows resistance to sheep mentality. I expect nothing less, of course, but still.
Why? Out of everything, why is this where you start off?
Eh, I don't see how you've changed anything playstyle wise. Are you looking for different things in posts, or...?
I think it comes down to "be more assertive" with your opinions, really.
Quite the opposite. Scum tend to go with the flow, because this stems from a desire to not wish to go against the town consensus, lest they stand out and have undue attention brought unto them. Sadly there are false positives present here, but it is a scum tell.
I agree it was pretty poorly reasoned as to why it should be ignored, but I'm not sure why you are assuming paranoia must be present.
Eh, I mostly agree with you here.
Good to note your position is pro-mechanics talk. I'm of the same mind.
"taking responsibility" doesn't really mean anything, though.
What part of his case convinced you, then?
Right, so you're not pro-mechanics talk.
Assuming you meant Town, I agree.
Isn't that gif glorious? 
Why not do so, then?
I don't know any of them. I guess you have a thing for space buns, though.
Unlikely, given it's obviously a typo.
Speaking of typos, I assume you mean "isn't" sleeping?
I mean, not really. When we're talking about possibilities, them being in play doesn't mean they're given equal weighting.
Or indeed, any country amongst the Oceanic peninsula.
I mean, I don't know if one game should be the ultimate litmus test, either.
Did you really believe that this vote would go anywhere?
I'll note that Zemmi hasn't actually voted back to either.
Gottem.
I mean, not really. You've created a slew of false positives around his discussion, not much of it is alignment indicative, and you distancing yourself from the result here is duly noted.
I mean, it was obviously a typo. Given that you also made one, you should know that they're eminently possible to make.
Why are you asusming more familiarity with the setup than Light, exactly?
If you're town, is it really a waste?
Obviously, as you've seen several times today if you'd been reading.
I mean, you not being here is at least partly to blame too. Own your own mistakes first, rather than project them onto others.
Is this role certain to be in the game? I would assume yes if the King is bad, right?
If the Butler claim checks out, I tend to agree actually.
They're clearly not vouching for Light.
Currently have Town on Zemmi and Ekko
Null on Kagura
Scum on Gambit and Melkor
But technically you agree with me that scum use that to appear contributive, thus I see no point in you quoting it.
You quoted my next post where I said what I expected. And I did move the game by engaging with him, as well as others.
No, my reasons are those I provided. It's D1, we have to start from somewhere.
It's not an issue for D1. Come on Ratchet, it's pretty clear what I said there. I even outlined it with the for now addition.
I agree with her statement that scum in general pay more attention. And then I said that it doesn't apply to me, because I always pay attention. Again, I fail to see how you misread that.
You quoted my next post where I said what I expected. And I did move the game by engaging with him, as well as others.
No, my reasons are those I provided. It's D1, we have to start from somewhere.
It's not an issue for D1. Come on Ratchet, it's pretty clear what I said there. I even outlined it with the for now addition.
I agree with her statement that scum in general pay more attention. And then I said that it doesn't apply to me, because I always pay attention. Again, I fail to see how you misread that.
- Vote Count 2 -
Lord Melkor - Enryu
Ekkologix - Light D Lamperouge > Lord Melkor > Tobi > Kagura
LANJI CUCKSMOKE - Tobi
Don DaSlayer - Lord Melkor
Zara - Ekkologix > Tobi
oddoddfruit - Ekkologix > Alibaba
Light D Lamperouge - Ekkologix
Tobi - Zara
Tobi - 2
Enryu / Lord Melkor / Alibaba / Ekkologix / Zara / Kagura - 1
With 15 players alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
Lord Melkor - Enryu
Ekkologix - Light D Lamperouge > Lord Melkor > Tobi > Kagura
LANJI CUCKSMOKE - Tobi
Don DaSlayer - Lord Melkor
Zara - Ekkologix > Tobi
oddoddfruit - Ekkologix > Alibaba
Light D Lamperouge - Ekkologix
Tobi - Zara
Tobi - 2
Enryu / Lord Melkor / Alibaba / Ekkologix / Zara / Kagura - 1
With 15 players alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
- Status