We have at most 146 chapters left, considering Oda loves his numbers and chapter 1200 makes perfect sense.
600 chapters + 60 volumes for Pre-TS and 600 chapters + 60 volumes for Post-TS.
I just don't see the time to go for Elbaf as an arc, even a short one like Zou.
Imo Elbaf could just end up being Usopp Epilogue. I think maybe we could see a scene of Usopp going by himself with a few giants to Elbaf, in hopes of recruiting the giants for the war.
Then in the middle of the war, when things start looking bad for the alliance, Usopp shows up with a bunch of giants behind him. His 8000 men, his original line, just like Gandalf. That would be hype asf.
That is assuming he's gonna do the same amount of chapters and volumes post TS too ofc.
For him to skip Elbaf would make absolutely no sense to me though, it would be like skipping Wano and god knows I had to argue with so many people on why Wano will happen too.
Vikings and giants are far too big of a influence on Oda and feature in the story, it wouldn't make sense to skip it at all.
I've not even a huge fan of vikings, giants or whatever but for the sake of Usopp, the fact that Elbaf has been set up for 20 something years now maybe, that its had even longer setup and waiting time than Elbaf, that makes me sick tbh. It would be like having Shanks or Mihawk offscreened or Dragon or Garp or whatever.
I do think Oda is gonna do a lot of speed running for now, he's gonna accelerate things greatly especially with how much of a painful slog Dressrosa and especially Wano were but I refuse to believe he will skip Elbaf, even if we get a heavily cut down version of it.
That scenario you suggest could be possible but it would very underwhelming/lackluster, at least for me anyway. That could have been Usopps timeskip story if Oda wanted to do that instead, it would have been the perfect training arc for him.
There is also the assumption that Oda will finish in the next few years too. Oda himself even admitted his own estimates are unreliable and that hes said we've got 5 years left before or that OP was only meant tobe 5 years long or we're 80% of the story through or w/e before Wano too.
Oda could definitely do Elbaf if he trims out a LOT of the pointless nonsense he added in to these overbloated/saturated arcs post TS and just maintained a laser focus to the end.
Elbaf doesnt even need 30-40 chapters, it could probably manage at 10-20 depending on what its for. But even 30-40 would be idea/great, arcs used to be that length at most or so and it was truly wonderful.
If he skips Elbaf, it just proves the story really has lost its way, that its not truly about the adventure, spirit and such now and its just more of a political, grand themes focused, whatever kind of story.
After all this Yonko saga nonsense, I just want a truly adventurous, fun, simple arc one last time at least before the end, is that too much to ask for? Going back to OP's roots and remembering what made it so great in the first place, why we fell in love with it, where it started from, its roots.
Elbaf has way too much potential and involvement to be skipped, I just refuse to believe it will be. Its just as bad as saying Wano would be skipped.