Nekomamushi not showing up gives me bad vibes for the Alliance now. There's no way the decisive battle occurs without one of the Scabbards present.
Not only Neko but also the Guardians who go with him. You can say for sure the raid fail if these things happen:
- Nekomamushi and the Guardians don't showing up
- Marco and the rest of the Whitebeard pirates didn't show up even though Oda Building up a plot for them to showing up in wano
- Weevil don't getting defeated before Kaido fall. I don't see the point of Luffy fighting Weevil after Wano after he take out Kaido, the Weevil story should end up first before Luffy beat Kaido
-Act3 didn't end soon which mean we get the raid during act3 and also the fights, act 3 is usually the dramatic and tragic story for the heroes who take a lose from the villians
-Navy don't showing up in Wano even though Oda build up so much story into the Rocks/Navy. For sure they should shows up in wano too.
If these points didn't happen soon, I really believe the raid gonna fail and the alliance will get a tragic lose with probably worse deaths. It would fit to Hawkins prediction about the one month.
As
@dirtyLarry said in the past, the war overall in wano make more sense then just in Onigashima.