Based on how the game progresses later on.
I prefer seeing people put out their reads and then seeing how their thoughts/opinions change in the thread as the game progresses and mechanics come into play.
Whether their shifts look natural or forced, reactions to flips, wagons & lynches.
I'm not saying that players should just ignore d1 entirely, i'm just saying that i suck at making good reads based on d1 stuff & i prefer not to do so.