I am not entirely convinced by this. Some looks like tinfoil (what I have responded to below).
Marimo has a way of playing, at least from my perspective, where he acts the same way whether he is town or scum. In the Naruto game I went over all of his posts numerous times and he was exactly the same as he is now.
> Opening post feels too forced and out of place, trying to get town cred early without doing much.
Everyone writes "good luck" and "down with scums", it doesn't look forced at all.
> Tries to steer away sus from newbies, ostensibly due to the fact that he might be scum and his mates one of the first time players
Or maybe he can understand why raising sus on newbies is scummy? If he was scum himself don't you think he would coach them about how to respond?
> The rest of his posts are mostly fluff, with some explanations about the big news emote, and that one post that feels like testing the waters.
Again, I think he's just a fluffy player overall.
Perhaps my biggest problem with this is that Gianfi isn't that different compared to Marimo. Both are fluffy, one contributed even less, actually.
To me it feels like you're distancing yourself from Gianfi. As you said, we will see how he responds later in the day phase, but I'm not going to forget you dismissing him because Nat said he plays the same as town or scum. It looks like you are defending him.
But let's wait.