Future Events OP is not ending in 5 years.

#1
At this point we've gotten quited used to Oda and the editors stating that the series will end within 5 years. One common misapprehension is that it isn't specified from what point onwards this supposed countdown would commence. Would OP end in 5 years after Wano has been completed? Well then it isn't really 5 years. Would OP end in 5 years from when Oda first made that statement then we would have roughly 3.5 years left. I think the best method in measuring how long OP will go on is simply to look at the span of the Pre-Timeskip sagas and comparing them to were we are right now.


As you can see, the Pre-Timeskip part can be divided into 6 sagas each containing multiple arcs (Thriller bark is the only exception).
In the Post-Timeskip era Oda has maintained the same formula however the reason why the arcs were shorter in the Pre-Timeskip part is because the story structure was different, Oda introduces far more characters now and has to give reasonable screentime to each of them. Compare Alabasta to Dressrosa for instance.
Alabasta essentially revolves around the strawhats having to defeat Baroque works whereas Dressrosa involves far more characters than only the strawhats, this is why we ended up with so many fights from the colloseum fighters. The same thing is happening in the current Wano arc where so many factions and people are involved so it's only natural for these arcs to be as long as they are.

Let's say Wano ends in 2021. At this point Oda would have to do 3 more sagas which would be a minimum of around 5/6 arcs.
This is how I could see the story unfolding:

Elbaf Saga : transitional arc (short) + Elbaf arc (long) (60-80 chapters)
Raftel Saga : Loadstar Island (short) + Raftel (short/long?) (40 chapters)
Final War Saga : Final war (long) + epilogue (short) (120-140 chapters)

Given the fact that both Dressrosa and Wano exceed 100 chapters I feel like it would be a reasonable assumption to say that the final war arc would have to be atleast close to that number, especially considering that so many characters would get involved and that Luffy usually fights his opponents multiple times throughout an arc.

Let's do the math and assume the lowest number possible. 60+40+120 = 220
I personally believe this number would be higher considering that Oda usually tends to drag out the story and create suspense and build-up.
Now let's look at how many chapters Oda releases every year.


As you can see, the number of chapters that Oda is realising per year is gradually declining but let's just say that it stays the same from this point onward (2021)

36 x 5 = 180.

This is the basically the main reason why I can't believe the whole ''OP is ending in 5 years'' thing (which would be even less now). It would mean that Oda has to complete the Wano arc and do 3 additional sagas all within 180 chapters. I'd say it would be more along the lines of 7 or 8 years.

What do you think?
 
#2
At this point we've gotten quited used to Oda and the editors stating that the series will end within 5 years. One common misapprehension is that it isn't specified from what point onwards this supposed countdown would commence. Would OP end in 5 years after Wano has been completed? Well then it isn't really 5 years. Would OP end in 5 years from when Oda first made that statement then we would have roughly 3.5 years left. I think the best method in measuring how long OP will go on is simply to look at the span of the Pre-Timeskip sagas and comparing them to were we are right now.


As you can see, the Pre-Timeskip part can be divided into 6 sagas each containing multiple arcs (Thriller bark is the only exception).
In the Post-Timeskip era Oda has maintained the same formula however the reason why the arcs were shorter in the Pre-Timeskip part is because the story structure was different, Oda introduces far more characters now and has to give reasonable screentime to each of them. Compare Alabasta to Dressrosa for instance.
Alabasta essentially revolves around the strawhats having to defeat Baroque works whereas Dressrosa involves far more characters than only the strawhats, this is why we ended up with so many fights from the colloseum fighters. The same thing is happening in the current Wano arc where so many factions and people are involved so it's only natural for these arcs to be as long as they are.

Let's say Wano ends in 2021. At this point Oda would have to do 3 more sagas which would be a minimum of around 5/6 arcs.
This is how I could see the story unfolding:

Elbaf Saga : transitional arc (short) + Elbaf arc (long) (60-80 chapters)
Raftel Saga : Loadstar Island (short) + Raftel (short/long?) (40 chapters)
Final War Saga : Final war (long) + epilogue (short) (120-140 chapters)

Given the fact that both Dressrosa and Wano exceed 100 chapters I feel like it would be a reasonable assumption to say that the final war arc would have to be atleast close to that number, especially considering that so many characters would get involved and that Luffy usually fights his opponents multiple times throughout an arc.

Let's do the math and assume the lowest number possible. 60+40+120 = 220
I personally believe this number would be higher considering that Oda usually tends to drag out the story and create suspense and build-up.
Now let's look at how many chapters Oda releases every year.


As you can see, the number of chapters that Oda is realising per year is gradually declining but let's just say that it stays the same from this point onward (2021)

36 x 5 = 180.

This is the basically the main reason why I can't believe the whole ''OP is ending in 5 years'' thing (which would be even less now). It would mean that Oda has to complete the Wano arc and do 3 additional sagas all within 180 chapters. I'd say it would be more along the lines of 7 or 8 years.

What do you think?
the fact people keep saying one piece will end in 5 years it was said in 2019 proves it won’t end in 5 years

I would say around 7-10
 
#6
I think the reverie events set up an imminent clash between luffy and the marines as sabo, vivi, and hancock could all possibly be captured by the world government.
Given Luffy's current powerlevel, he should be just slightly weaker than akainu, meaning it would be a perfect time for them to fight.
I doubt we will neglect the marines up until the final war, especially since the villain of the final war is Imu, not Akainu.

What I think is something like this
  • Extermination saga
    • Imu attempts to exterminate Luffy by executing sabo and hancock, knowing Luffy will come to new marineford to save them.
    • contains:
      • vegapunk arc(short)
      • New Marineford arc(long)
  • Hegemony saga
    • Luffy and Shanks team up to stop an alliance of Eustass Kid and Blackbeard
    • contains:
      • Lodestar arc(short)
      • Elbaf arc(long)
  • Will of D Saga
    • contains:
      • raftel arc(short)
      • final war(long)
 
#17
It’s been five years for 3 years now. I think it’ll end in maybe 6 from here on out.
You're confused, and same with the OP. Oda said 5 years once, in 2019. He hasn't given a further timeline since then.

The fans have repeated 5 years every year, but Oda has not repeated 5 years in 2020 and then 5 years in 2021. You people on here are the ones who have done that, and that should not be taken into account as "oh he's saying that.".
 
#19
You're confused, and same with the OP. Oda said 5 years once, in 2019. He hasn't given a further timeline since then.

The fans have repeated 5 years every year, but Oda has not repeated 5 years in 2020 and then 5 years in 2021. You people on here are the ones who have done that, and that should not be taken into account as "oh he's saying that.".
No, I mean we’ve been in that five year period for three years now.
 
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