I think y'all underestimate the speed needed to land a hit on kaido.
- kaido, like big mom, tanks attacks and rarely if ever dodges them
- Kaido only blitzed Luffy in thunder bagua, which is one of his strongest moves
As we saw with the scabbards and Luffy, kaido basically allows his opponents to get free hits on them. This would contribute to his defeat by shigaraki.
But even if he doesn't do this and goes for a thunder bagua up front, its debatable if that would actually 1 shot shigaraki.
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the only possible way for him to do that would be for him to take shigaraki's head off. All shigaraki needs to do to stop that attack is merely touch kaido's club or the ground