BG3 already won this, you're lying to yourself if you don't think so
Spider-Man 2, Zelda and RE4 all have the same problem as God of War Ragnarok: they are great games, sequels to great games, and they are bigger, more polished and complex versions of the original games. But they don't have any new novelty / innovations that make them a lot different than their previous title. Which means they don't get the bonus for being innovative.
That's how God of War (2018) won over Red Dead Redemption 2, Red Dead Redemption 2 was a bigger, better, more polished version of Red Dead Redemption 1, but there wasn't any novelty. But God of War (2018) was a complete change for the series in terms of style, story and gameplay, a much bigger risk. Awards love that shit.
So i would bet on BG3 or Alan Wake 2.
Most likely BG3. It was the most beloved game of the year.