Role Madness Too Many Doctors (Game Thread)

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Alexis2282AE

Alexis2282AE

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#3,002
#3,002
hime said:
what was ur OG plan agn?
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Correction: My final plan.

If we go with the OG plan, I have no qualms with that, though.
Alexis2282AE said:
  • @Ali v2: Target @Alwaysmind.
  • @Luka: Target @The Orca.
  • @Yoho: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Daniel.
  • Daniel: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect me (Alexis).
  • Alexis2282AE: Protecting @Yo Tan Wa.
  • Yo Tan Wa: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Michelle.
  • Michelle: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Random Asshole.
  • Alwaysmind: Target Ali v2.
  • Random Asshole: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Stargate18.
  • Stargate18: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @York.
  • York: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Polar Bear.
  • The Orca: Target Luka.
  • Polar Bear: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Red Night.
  • Red Night: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @hime.
  • hime: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect @Hayumi.
  • Hayumi: If Watcher: Target Alwaysmind. If Doctor: Protect Yoho.
  • The Mafia has a 100% chance to attempt their factional kill.
  • If they target the single unprotected Town member (identified by figuring out who the Watcher is and thus who isn't being protected in the chain), the kill will succeed. This is a 1/12 chance if they guess randomly among the assumed Town members.
  • If they target a protected Town member, the kill will fail unless the Mafia JOAT successfully roleblocks the specific Doctor protecting that target.
  • The Watcher's success depends on Alwaysmind being visited by another Mafia member (as per this plan or by scum's own strategy like a Mafia Doctor protection) and the absence of JOAT interference (Sensei on the visitor or Roleblock on the Watcher).
  • If anything goes wrong:
    • A Town member was killed: This most likely means one of two things:
      1. The Mafia targeted the one Town member who was not protected by a Town Doctor (because the Doctor who would have protected them was actually the Watcher).
      2. The Mafia's JOAT successfully roleblocked the Town Doctor who was assigned to protect the Town member who was killed.
    • The Watcher receives no results on Alwaysmind: This could indicate:
      1. No one actually visited Alwaysmind.
      2. A visitor to Alwaysmind was made undetectable by the Mafia JOAT's Sensei ability.
      3. The Watcher themself was roleblocked by the Mafia JOAT.
Repeating: 11 out of the 12 assumed Town members (approximately 91.7%) will be protected by a Town Doctor. One assumed Town member (approximately 8.3%) will be vulnerable to a direct kill.
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Alexis2282AE said:
  • 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
  • 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
  • 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
  • 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
  • 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 13. @York (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 14. @The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.

Breakdown​

  • Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
    One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
    If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
    The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
  • The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies
  • The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
    • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
    • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
    • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
  • If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
  • Watcher's results on Ali:
    1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
    2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.
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hime

hime

‎
#3,005
#3,005
scum have 3 roles that can fake visit
for all ik u could be scum with one of those roles and ur delaying/refusing to respond bc of what happened with the whole hayumi/me fiasco
 
Polar Bear

Polar Bear

‎
#3,015
#3,015
hime said:
i mean u can fake it if that was the plan all along
ekko was never going to make it past np2
i wouldnt put it past him and polar to fake a slip plan for hella cred
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Totally

Scum chat:

Ekko: watch this guys, I'm gonna big brain my way out of this

Fuji: don't bc you are gonna screw it up

Ekko: nah, I totally got this

<ekko scum slips>

<fuji rages>

<luka enters>



Luka: I got this, ill get them off of ekko

<luka defends ekko almost immediately>

Polar Bear: its hella bussing time, im gonna bury ekko and fuji/luka so deep that freckles can get some revenge
 
Alwaysmind

Alwaysmind

‎
#3,019
#3,019
Polar Bear said:
Lol

How about this...telling the world who you targeted is very dumb
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No m8te. Mafia is played by role reveal these days. Sadly we can't role reveal ourselves here because the host @Guillo took that away from us. Otherwise I would have stated my name, what my role does and who I intended to target for the next 6 phases in my very first post.
 
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