Role Madness Too Many Doctors (Game Thread)

[Luka]

ali is town btw

 

[Alexis2282AE]

ali is town btw

You're a wolf. Ali is a wolf.

 

[Luka]

I won’t play this cat and mouse game with you, and I refuse to believe you don’t get my point, I’ll be visiting you tonight.

between u and alexis it was impossible for me to live long anyways lmfao

fun game

 

[Luka]

You're a wolf. Ali is a wolf.

shut up i do not care

 

[Alexis2282AE]

between u and alexis it was impossible for me to live long anyways lmfao

fun game

Stay in wolf chat or provide full reads.

 

[hime]

He's relatively new here.

ik but like the question is more y he voted mango last day while saying that but not ekko today while saying the same thing
i have a feeling that if ekko is scum, he was saved from lynch with last minute votes on mango last day

 

[hime]

btw curious, y did u come into the day wanting to sheep flower over ratchet? @Luka

 

[Luka]

Town:

- Ali
- Alexis
- Alwaysmind
- Ekko

Wolf:
- Sigismund
- Orca

 

[Luka]

btw curious, y did u come into the day wanting to sheep flower over ratchet? @Luka

didnt wr ekkos posting

 

[Alexis2282AE]

Town:

- Ali
- Alexis
- Alwaysmind
- Ekko
Towning most of the team.
Wolf:
- Sigismund - Townie
- Orca - Wolf

 

[Alexis2282AE]

@hime Do you trust my post-research PoEs?

 

[Alexis2282AE]

Yeah. Wolves are fried.

 

[hime]

@hime Do you trust my post-research PoEs?

idk, i agree with luka
maybe orca if u consider it a distance attempt between him and ekko but im not 100% sure there

can u explain the others?

 

[Alexis2282AE]

idk, i agree with luka
maybe orca if u consider it a distance attempt between him and ekko but im not 100% sure there

can u explain the others?

Ali's only been pushing wolves as of D2. That in of itself is a form of TMI. As for Alwaysmind, he had a vote on Ekko D1 past RVS (Random Voting Stage), and then switched off when he was a serious wagon.

 

[Alexis2282AE]

If we follow this plan, it'll be a massacre (for the wolves).

 

[Yoho]

Good morning

 

[Random Asshole]

Good morning

Mornin

 

[Daniel]

u said this last day but still voted mango, y?

In case any surprises happen and people start changing votes

 

[Alexis2282AE]

• 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
• 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
• 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
• 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
    
• 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
• 13. @York (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
    
• 14. @The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
• 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
    
• 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    
• 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    
• 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    

Breakdown​

• Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
  One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
  If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
  If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
  Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
  The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
• The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies

• The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
  • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
  • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
  • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
    
• If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
• Watcher's results on Ali:
  1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
  2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.
     

 

[Alexis2282AE]

• 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
• 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
• 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Ali.
    
• 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
• 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Luka.
    
• 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
    
• 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
• 13. @York (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
    
• 14. The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
• 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
    
• 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    
• 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    
• 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
  
  • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    
  • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
    

Breakdown​

• Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
  One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
  If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
  If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
  Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
  The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
• The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies

• The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
  • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
  • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
  • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
    
• If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
• Watcher's results on Ali:
  1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
  2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.
     

Note that even if the wolves don't do what they are told to do, all four wolves are still expected to die.