Role Madness Too Many Doctors (Game Thread)

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Hayumi

Hayumi

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#2,847
#2,847
Finally off work so I got time. Unfortunately it seems irrelevant and all we can do is cross our fingers Ekko is scum because I see literally no alternative has been given?

Yall are telling me in a world where Ekko is wolf and has 4 other buddies that not a single one has tried any attempt at steering thing elsewhere?
 
Hayumi

Hayumi

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#2,848
#2,848
I get the idea of sheeping Ratchet but I mean realistically is that the smartest thing to do when Flower wanted hime gone over Ekko, as did Fuji. And I kind of doubt scum Fuji would openly protect Ekko like that but maybe I’m way off based.

but either way feels like hime has gotten a free pass.

thoughts @Luka ?
 
Michelle

Michelle

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#2,849
#2,849
Alwaysmind said:
What would you call it?



That would be what I call lurking
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AFKing
Luka said:
How do you like the plan
it's just orcustrating kills on his wolf reads with zero rationalle behind them whatsoever
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Idk if you are aware but I wanted that D1 and no one agreed. One of Flower or Ratchet would be alive today if we would make the plan during D1, unfortunately I was too busy irl to think at details.
 
hime

hime

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#2,854
#2,854
Alexis2282AE said:
Ali's only been pushing wolves as of D2. That in of itself is a form of TMI. As for Alwaysmind, he had a vote on Ekko D1 past RVS (Random Voting Stage), and then switched off when he was a serious wagon.
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how is it tmi for some and not for others tho?
u say u know who the wolves r and u r now pushing them all, what is the diff there
 
hime

hime

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#2,860
#2,860
Alexis2282AE said:
  • 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
  • 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
  • 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
  • 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
  • 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 13. @York (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 14. @The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.

Breakdown​

  • Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
    One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
    If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
    The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
  • The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies
  • The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
    • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
    • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
    • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
  • If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
  • Watcher's results on Ali:
    1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
    2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.
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this plan results in potentially 4 deaths tonight
thats way too many if ur wrong abt anyone

everyone should target 1 person or we split player list in half and do 2 ppl max
any more is far too big a risk


this is in the case that ekko flips scum anyway
if he flips town, i suggest everyone abstain so we can reassess tmrw imo
 
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