Role Madness Too Many Doctors (Game Thread)

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Alexis2282AE

Alexis2282AE

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#3,082
#3,082
Guillo said:
Day 2 Vote Count 1.4
Ekkolojinx (11): hime, Alexis, Polar Bear, AlwaysMind, Michelle, The Orca, Yoho, Ali V2, Red Night, York, Hayumi
Orca (2): Ekkolojinx, Luka
Ali v2 (1): Daniel

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Day 2 will end: June 1st of 2025, 3PM EST (7pm GMT).
The player with the most votes will die at the end of the day.
If there is a tie, one will be eliminated at random.
When voting, please use the biggest font so I can see it. :)

Quote of the Day
"People who are not happy with themselves cannot possibly be happy with you".

----------------------------------

@Rej Will close Day 2 and post the reveal everything.
Game phases will remain 48/24, we only got 4 reactions to the change proposal, so majority wins.

Have a lovely Sunday.
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No way Town makes it with this level of inactivity. The plan is a go.
 
hime

hime

‎
#3,087
#3,087
Alexis2282AE said:
  • 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
  • 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
  • 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
  • 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
  • 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 13. @York (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 14. @The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.

Breakdown​

  • Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
    One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
    If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
    The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
  • The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies
  • The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
    • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
    • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
    • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
  • If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
  • Watcher's results on Ali:
    1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
    2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.
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this plan will result in too many deaths, let me make a new plan
 
hime

hime

‎
#3,088
#3,088
Alwaysmind said:
Going back through the thread but here are some of my thoughts:


Town
Dr. Hayumi - Obvious reasons
Dr. York - While the posts are few, some have shown sound reasoning

Null
Dr. Ali - Afromentioned reasons. Produced decent posts but there not sure about some interactions.
Dr. Random Asshole - Not a lot of posts, sure there is IRL stuff Dr. Random (or Dr. Ass) talked about Day 1, but they did not even jump on a wagon nor start one


Scum
Dr. Alexis - - too many posts, constant badgering and tagging other people to answer question addressed to them
Dr. Ekko Crayola for all the reasons mentionned since Day 1

---

I also often mix up Dr. Orca and Dr. Polar on other forums so I gotta make sure I got my quotes right.
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u think if ekko is scum, alexis will be scum?
 
hime

hime

‎
#3,098
#3,098
if ekko flips scum and u guys want to follow some sort of plan:
i think luka is a slot we need to resolve regardless, personally if ekko flips scum, i think his teammates could be in daniel/michelle but ik many town read them so it is too risky to want them vigged in case i am wrong. i would say maybe random asshole for the second pick bc he is inactive and hard to read

@Ali v2 -> Luka
@Yoho -> Luka
@Daniel -> Luka
@Alexis2282AE -> Luka
@Yo Tan Wa -> Luka
@Michelle -> Luka
@Stargate18 -> Luka
@Alwaysmind -> Random Asshole
@York -> Random Asshole
@The Orca -> Random Asshole
@Polar Bear -> Random Asshole
@Red Night -> Random Asshole
@hime -> Random Asshole
@Hayumi -> You pick

we can also do a vote for the one doctor thing from before as well so we ensure that a townie player has control over it
 
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