Role Madness Too Many Doctors (Game Thread)

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hime

hime

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#3,105
#3,105
Alexis2282AE said:
AM is a wolf. Random Asshole is a LHF, he is to be left alone. If we target one person, it's Luka. Or we follow the full plan.
Click to expand...
lhf can still be scum
he will forever be in poe since he is inactive and hard to read

lets all go with a plan to target luka then, i think its a hit and its safer
obvi i cant do it but everyone else can
 
Alexis2282AE

Alexis2282AE

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#3,120
#3,120
Begin the operation.​
  • 01. @Ali v2 (Suspected Wolf): Target @Luka.
  • 02. @Luka (Suspected Wolf): Target @The Orca.
  • 03. @Yoho (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 04. @Daniel (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 06. @Alexis2282AE (Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Ali.
  • 07. @Yo Tan Wa (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 08. @Michelle (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 09. EkkoLoJinx (Assumed Lynched)
  • 10. @Random Asshole (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Luka.
  • 11. @Stargate18 (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target @The Orca.
  • 12. @Alwaysmind (Suspected Wolf): Target Ali. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 13. @York (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 14. @The Orca (Suspected Wolf): Target Alwaysmind. (Town expects you to be targeted by multiple Doctors).
  • 15. @Polar Bear (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target The Orca.
  • 16. @Red Night (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 17. @hime (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.
  • 18. @Hayumi (Assumed Town):
    • If Watcher: Target Ali.
    • If Doctor: Target Alwaysmind.

Breakdown​

  • Each of the four suspected wolves (Ali, Luka, The Orca, Alwaysmind) is assigned a group of three Town members.
    One of these 12 Town members is the Watcher. The other 11 are Doctors.
    If the Watcher is in a group of three assigned to a wolf: That wolf will be targeted by the remaining two Doctors in that group. Two Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    If the Watcher is NOT in a group of three assigned to a wolf (i.e., all three in that group are Doctors): That wolf will be targeted by three Doctors. Three Doctor visits = Wolf dies.
    Therefore, all four suspected wolves are expected to die tonight due to receiving 2 or 3 Doctor visits each.
    The Mafia Doctor's protection will be ineffective against 2+ Doctor visits.
  • The Mafia will still get their factional night kill. Since Town Doctors are on offensive duties, one Town member will likely die. This is a trade of 1 Townie for 4 Wolves.

Risks and Contingencies
  • The primary risk to a wolf surviving is the Mafia JOAT
    • If a wolf is being targeted by exactly two Doctors (because the Watcher is in their assigned group of three), AND the JOAT successfully roleblocks one of those two specific Doctors, that wolf will only receive one Doctor visit and will survive.
    • Calculation: There are 12 Townies. The Watcher is 1 of them. For any specific wolf, the chance the Watcher is in their group of 3 is 3/12 (or 1/4). If so, that wolf is targeted by 2 Doctors. The JOAT has 11 active Town Doctors to choose from. The chance the JOAT hits one of those 2 specific Doctors is 2/11.
    • So, the probability for a specific wolf to survive due to this scenario is (3/12) * (2/11) = 1/4 * 2/11 = 2/44 = 1/22 (approximately 4.5%). While low for one wolf, the chance that at least one wolf survives this way is higher.
  • If a wolf survives tonight: It is most likely because the Watcher was in their assigned group of three, AND the Mafia JOAT roleblocked one of the two Doctors targeting that specific wolf.
  • Watcher's results on Ali:
    1. You should see visits from either two or three Town Doctors (Yoho, Daniel, me (Alexis), depending on which one of them, if any, is you, the Watcher). You might also see a visit from Alwaysmind (as per their assigned action) or a Mafia Doctor attempting a (pointless) protection.
    2. If you get no results: This likely means you were roleblocked by the JOAT, or any visitors to Ali were made undetectable by the JOAT's Sensei ability.


QUOTE="Alexis2282AE, post: 6124744, member: 99912"]Reminder: Don't concern yourself with what the wolves do/do not do. It is completely irrelevant. They all die anyway.
 
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