I think Luffy is going to “win” by knocking no Kaido out and him landing on the flower capital.
After that, he’ll get up later and awaken leading to the nine shadows prophecy being fulfilled by the nine straw hats, until Luffy comes in and uses a red Roc that holds the fires of all the lanterns that have been thrown into the sky to finish him off as the sun rises.
This ending:
1. Completes the nine shadows prophecy
2. Completes Odens prophecy
3. Involves the dreams of Wano citizens being used to defeat Kaido
4. Involves Aces promise to defeat Kaido
5. Heavily mirrors the ending of the oars fight
After that, he’ll get up later and awaken leading to the nine shadows prophecy being fulfilled by the nine straw hats, until Luffy comes in and uses a red Roc that holds the fires of all the lanterns that have been thrown into the sky to finish him off as the sun rises.
This ending:
1. Completes the nine shadows prophecy
2. Completes Odens prophecy
3. Involves the dreams of Wano citizens being used to defeat Kaido
4. Involves Aces promise to defeat Kaido
5. Heavily mirrors the ending of the oars fight
But the problem Oda is going to have is how can anyone take down an awakened Kaido when we spent 100 chapters with characters not touching him or doing anything