Pre-awakening Luffy was having a serious fight with Kaido, and his chances of beating Kaido were less than 0.
incorrect. If that overkong had landed there is a
nonzero chance that Kaidou gets knocked out, vs. getting killed by Luffy first named g5 attack against him after he regenerated back some health in the interim.
Kaidou was still feeling the aftereffects of 1 overkong gun when he fell to his knees during their fight a decent while after.
You are basically saying bowler hat died for no reason, when that isn't how it is portrayed in the manga, either by his own "honorable resignation to his fate" in exchange for "killing" Luffy, or Kaidou's own words of apology and face of frustration. Try reading the manga please.