While I fully understand the arguments for luffy taking a big L at the war before the final part comes, I just can’t come clean with it.
in my eyes, there is way to much on the table for luffy to lose. There is not just him and the crew, there is a whole army, desperate people which were waiting for this moment for 20 years, people who lost hope, people who got crushed, people who are up for it now but are here to win or die. Nothing between it. I mean, take a look at Kinemon. Can you consider him taking a L and try again? I can’t, he will win here or die here, he made that clear. Also the thousands of loyal soldiers from Oden in the past, they accept their fate and they put all of it on this card.
The only L I can see coming is that some main fighter (Luffy, Kid, Zoro, Law, Sanji, Jimbe...) get separated from the final war, no idea how (maybe law betrays them and change their position or something), but just not being there when the fight begins. So the Alliance gets some fights but will be crushed desperately, just until the main fighter arrive and go for the final fight.