Current Events The raid on Onigashima will undoubtedly fail

[PuckTheGreat]

Hey~! Hope y'all having a bless day ^^. In this thread I'd like to give my thoughts on why I think the current raid on Onigashima is gonna end with the alliance taking a massive L. A few months ago, I wasn't subscribed to this idea, but given the current events in the story I think it is extremely likely and some of the reasons why I think so are:

- Wano appears to incorporate the story telling structure of Japanese Kabuki which has 5 acts and we are currently in the 3rd act of the Wano arc which usually ends in some sort of tragedy in Kabuki.

- The alliance have very limited resources and with those resources, it was always gonna be extremely difficult to take down Kaidou and Orochi but now Kaidou has allied with Liln, meaning that the alliance have to take out an additional Yonkou crew in order to free Wano.

- The alliance did not formulate a proper plan to for the raid on Onigashima and elected an incompetent who relies on luck as the main strategist for the mission. (I love Kin, but this is the reality...lolz)

- The alliance vastly underestimated the strength of the Beast Pirates.

At the start of the raid on Oniagshima, we were fully introduced to an entity known as the flying Six, a group composed of the strongest 6 headliners of the beast pirates. Initially when this group was first mentioned in the story, Majority of the one piece community assumed that they were equivalents of the likes of Daifuku/Oven/Perospero etc of the BM pirates as you know Yonkou crews have to balance each other out...lolz but now we know, that there is a fundamental difference between these two groups as the flying six are actually actively trying to take the calamities seats which I think infers that they are at the very least strong enough to challenge them. Daifuku etc. and even Perospero were never given this kinda hype. There's clearly a gap established between the Sweet Commanders and Big Mom's veterans imo and I think that the fact that Snack lost his postion as a Sweet Commander and then there was no replacement for him is very telling that none of the other BM pirates were qualified enough to replace him. Hell even someone as strong as Snack was deemed to be to weak for the sweet commanders hence why there are now 3 commanders instead of 4. Moving on from the comparison with the beast pirates and the bigmom pirates, it was established a few chapters ago that the beats pirates are an organisation in which the strong rise to the top which I think undoubtedly establishes all of the flying six as superior in strength to even the likes of Apoo and Hawkins who are pretty formidable supernova. Hell we found out last chapter that Apoo a supernova is vying for the Tobi Roppo spots lolz. So this just goes to show how scary the upper echelon of the beast pirates are. Also on the flying six, it easy to dismiss their strength because of the manner in which Sanji fought Page One but it's very easy to forget that Page One was pit against pretty formidable hax in Sanji's invisibility, so that fight was probably not a proper reflection of his strength. Again, Apoo a Shinuchi at best, was able to pressure both Luffy and Zoro with his hax coz they couldn't perceive his attacks heck Zoro plain out said that. This is pretty similar to Sanji's invisibility. Note that Apoo alone was able to corner two of the alliance's big shots in Luffy and Zoro. Now you'd notice that with even all that said we haven't even spoken about the Numbers who are still shrouded in mystery and could potentially be just as strong or even stronger than the Tobi Roppo. There's also the Big Mom Pirates...lolz but even with that, the icing on the cake I think it the fact that both Zoro and Luffy (again, two of the strongest players in the alliance) decided to retreat from the Shinuchi not only because they are numerous in number but because they are also pretty strong...lolz. Yes Zoro and Luffy are trying to avoid as much injuries as possible before facing off against the big guns but that just goes to show that the lower ranking beast pirates are strong enough to be worried about. I mean, have y'all ever seen those two retreat from such low ranking subordinates before? lolz. Think Enies Lobby when the SHs particularly Luffy literally just plowed through the lower ranking members of the marines before facing off against the CP9. There is a stack contrast here. I think this is the first time in the series where the lower ranking members of the antagonist have given that such praise/portrayal.

- The schedule of the Golden Kagura (i.e. fire festival) have some pretty significant items which I very much doubt are gonna be skipped. I don't think there is any sense in Oda mentioning that schedule if it wasn't gonna be happening as planned.

- The lack of the presence of the BM pirates on Onigashima save BM herself even though the raid has already started. Kin'emon and the Samurai displayed a bit of bravado at the start of the raid by sinking their ships emphasizing their resolve. This is akin to standing on the edge of a cliff with no where to proceed but forward with all your enemies gathered on the opposing side. However that was a grave miscalculation as they failed to properly idenitify the enemies position before starting the raid. Right now they are literally back to a cliff with formidable beast pirates in the opposing side and the big mom pirates climbing up that cliff to sandwich their very very insignificant number of forces.

- The lack of the presence of tama on the Onigashima raid. Tama's ability is literally a plot device made to counter the beast pirates. Most likely the smile devil fruit users. The fact that a formidable entity such as herself is not taking part is very questionable. It's very unlikely that Tama travels ot Onigahsima. So chances are that she participates in the fight when the alliance fall back to the mainland as at that point she'd have not choice but to participate.


So what do y'all think. Do you think plot is enough to counter all of these odds...lolz would love to hear your thoughts. Supplements or even critique of any of the points I made ^^.

 

[Seth]

I don't know who started this trend but I believe in that all Wano war. They will fail the raid and retreat to the land of Wano and the fight will continue there. I hope when they lost all their hope Nekomamushi will show up with Marco and all possible people he could ask for help. I also doubt Marines will not participate. Greenbul needs a proper introduction to the series and Wano is the best for this.
My bet for Marines is Greenbul, Kizaru, and Fujitora to show up. Well, they need too if Oda wants this to be bigger than Marineford.

 

[Buusatan94]

It has been my opinion for a long time now, I do not think that the alliance has what it needs to put down one Yonko and his/her crew, even less two.
Also important actors are absent such as Tama, Hiyori, Nekomamushi and the allies he may have found, the marines or the CP0.
I also believe that there was always going to be three rounds between Luffy and Kaido (with help of other supernovas) and that the final battle will happen in Wano itself so the people of Wano can see the defeat of Kaido and Orochi similar to Arlong, Crocodile, Moria and Doflamingo's defeats.

 

[Sir WanKing]

definitely man, the feeling of this raid rn is nowhere near marineford, let alone bigger than it... people say that this arc is overhyped, but i believe in GODA

 

[PuckTheGreat]

I don't know who started this trend but I believe in that all Wano war. They will fail the raid and retreat to the land of Wano and the fight will continue there. I hope when they lost all their hope Nekomamushi will show up with Marco and all possible people he could ask for help. I also doubt Marines will not participate. Greenbul needs a proper introduction to the series and Wano is the best for this.
My bet for Marines is Greenbul, Kizaru, and Fujitora to show up. Well, they need too if Oda wants this to be bigger than Marineford.

Lolz I actually forgot to include the bit of Neko having not yet arrived on Onigashima as an indication that the raid will be failing. Thanks for bringing that up ^^ and yes like you, I also think the marines will be participating in this war. At the very least I think the likes of Coby, Smoker, Tashigi will be participating. If Greebull and them do come, I think it'd be after the Yonkou having fallen, towards the end of the arc. The marines themselves wouldn't be able to bring themselves to ally it the alliance but the likes of Smoker, Tashigi will because of their relationship with some of the alliance members.

 

[Seth]

Lolz I actually forgot to include the bit of Neko having not yet arrived on Onigashima as an indication that the raid will be failing. Thanks for bringing that up ^^ and yes like you, I also think the marines will be participating in this war. At the very least I think the likes of Coby, Smoker, Tashigi will be participating. If Greebull and them do come, I think it'd be after the Yonkou having fallen, towards the end of the arc. The marines themselves wouldn't be able to bring themselves to ally it the alliance but the likes of Smoker, Tashigi will because of their relationship with some of the alliance members.

Oh, you are wrong. Fujitora and Grenbull ( based on his personality ) are first Admirals you can think of when it comes to allying with Pirates to fight other pirates. Coby is busy. Smoke and Tashigi should appear later maybe not in Wano.

 

[Sir WanKing]

Lolz I actually forgot to include the bit of Neko having not yet arrived on Onigashima as an indication that the raid will be failing. Thanks for bringing that up ^^ and yes like you, I also think the marines will be participating in this war. At the very least I think the likes of Coby, Smoker, Tashigi will be participating. If Greebull and them do come, I think it'd be after the Yonkou having fallen, towards the end of the arc. The marines themselves wouldn't be able to bring themselves to ally it the alliance but the likes of Smoker, Tashigi will because of their relationship with some of the alliance members.

i dont have anything to deny your theory, but i just wanna ask isn't coby on his way to capture hancock? and smoker&tashigi were going to vegapunk's place?

i would definitely love to see greenbull participate and have his proper intro man!

 

[PuckTheGreat]

Oh, you are wrong. Fujitora and Grenbull ( based on his personality ) are first Admirals you can think of when it comes to allying with Pirates to fight other pirates. Coby is busy. Smoke and Tashigi should appear later maybe not in Wano.

Haha we shall see :p It's hard for to imagine that two of the most conflicted and significant marines in the series will not be participating in arc in which the some of the marines ally with the alliance. You have a point on Fujitora tho but I think it's unlikely Oda has an admiral take out one of the Yonkou currently on Onigashima, though I could be wrong :p. Would be sick to see Greenbull tho ^^. I defo think Vegapunk will be participating as well.

Post automatically merged: May 30, 2020

i dont have anything to deny your theory, but i just wanna ask isn't coby on his way to capture hancock? and smoker&tashigi were going to vegapunk's place?

i would definitely love to see greenbull participate and have his proper intro man!

Orochi asked the CP9 to bring Vegapunk to Wano threatening them with Kaidou and they were shook...lolz but now Orochi has both Kaidou and Lilin's backing so chances are that the CP0 hand Vegapunk over. At this point they already have the SSG and the new Pacisfista which are seen as able replacements for the Shichibukai so it'd be interesting to see just how much the WG still value Vegapunk. Moreover there is still the the victims of SMILE who I think have to be cured by the end of the arc. One piece is a feel good story and people don't really die...lolz so it's extremely unlikley that the smile victims aren't cured and off the top of my head only Vegapunk or maybe even Judge could accomplish that.

On Coby and Hancock, you know how Hancock is...lolz if she gets to know Luffy is in danger on Wano she will definitely go to his rescue. Last Coby heard of Luffy he was capture in Udon so that's prolly what Hancock gets to hear after the two bond about their mutual love for Luffy...lolz.

 

[Finalbeta]

The raid itself might fail, however Big Mom will somehow be distracted then

Or else the alliance will never make it out

 

[PuckTheGreat]

The raid itself might fail, however Big Mom will somehow be distracted then

Or else the alliance will never make it out

I personally don't think the alliance are gonna make it out of Onigahsima bar the ones with their ships still intact (i.e. SHs, Heart Pirates abd Kidd Pirates). Heck at this point I doubt the scabbards are gonna be retreating. They failed to retreat and still charged towards Onigashima even when the plan seemed to have failed and I think them destroying their ship empahsizes that they are not gonna be retreating regardless of what happens on Onigashima. The alliance will probably get more allies by the time they engage the beast pirates again e.g. Sword, Hancock and the Kuja, Smoker etc.

 

[King7]

I think they will fail but saved by Neko and what he brought ( i guess Whitebeard Pirates bar Marco )

 

[Sir WanKing]

Haha we shall see :p It's hard for to imagine that two of the most conflicted and significant marines in the series will not be participating in arc in which the some of the marines ally with the alliance. You have a point on Fujitora tho but I think it's unlikely Oda has an admiral take out one of the Yonkou currently on Onigashima, though I could be wrong :p. Would be sick to see Greenbull tho ^^. I defo think Vegapunk will be participating as well.

Post automatically merged: May 30, 2020

Orochi asked the CP9 to bring Vegapunk to Wano threatening them with Kaidou and they were shook...lolz but now Orochi has both Kaidou and Lilin's backing so chances are that the CP0 hand Vegapunk over. At this point they already have the SSG and the new Pacisfista which are seen as able replacements for the Shichibukai so it'd be interesting to see just how much the WG still value Vegapunk. Moreover there is still the the victims of SMILE who I think have to be cured by the end of the arc. One piece is a feel good story and people don't really die...lolz so it's extremely unlikley that the smile victims aren't cured and off the top of my head only Vegapunk or maybe even Judge could accomplish that.

On Coby and Hancock, you know how Hancock is...lolz if she gets to know Luffy is in danger on Wano she will definitely go to his rescue. Last Coby heard of Luffy he was capture in Udon so that's prolly what Hancock gets to hear after the two bond about their mutual love for Luffy...lolz.

great theory mate! it will be BIG 👌

 

[Buusatan94]

The raid gives me the same vibe than the attempt of invading the Fire Nation in the third book of Avatar : The Last Airbender.

 

[MarineHQ]

At this point i have no idea how the alliance is not getting clapped in this "war". It should be called a one sided beat down.

At the same time i couldn't endure another phase of preparations for battle. Also, how is Oda gonna explain that the alliance loses but all the major characters get out alive and live for a second try?

It would make the Yonkou look even more incompetent.

 

[Buusatan94]

And yes I agree that the CP0 or the Marines will come to Wano, maybe not with Vegapunk but at least with his last weapon, I really hope that Smoker and Tashigi will be of the party.

 

[PuckTheGreat]

I think they will fail but saved by Neko and what he brought ( i guess Whitebeard Pirates bar Marco )

Tbh, I'm not really a fan of the WB pirates participating in the battles on Onigashima as I'd rather the new Gen (i.e. the SHs, Kid Pirates, Heart Pirates, Young marines) have the spotlight on Onigashima. Can't help but feel the likes of Jozu, Vista will hinder that. Plus the SHs allying with the the WB to take down the yonkou a bit underwhelming for me personally. That said the WB pirates do have ties with Wano coz of Oden so it's a possibility ^^.

 

[Finalbeta]

The raid gives me the same vibe than the attempt of invading the Fire Nation in the third book of Avatar : The Last Airbender.

Blood Bending come to us!

 

[Buusatan94]

Blood Bending come to us!

There wasn't blood bending during the day of the Black Sun.

 

[King7]

Tbh, I'm not really a fan of the WB pirates participating in the battles on Onigashima as I'd rather the new Gen (i.e. the SHs, Kid Pirates, Heart Pirates, Young marines) have the spotlight on Onigashima. Can't help but feel the likes of Jozu, Vista will hinder that. Plus the SHs allying with the the WB to take down the yonkou a bit underwhelming for me personally. That said the WB pirates do have ties with Wano coz of Oden so it's a possibility ^^.

I hope next gen Marines ( Coby , Smoker , Helmeppo , Tashigi ) will come but last time we saw them , they were busy escorting 50 Kings & Queens back to their kingdoms , the result of incident with Vivi/Cobra , and dealing with Mihawk , Hancock , Weevil , Buggy

 

[Charlotte Horchata]

What people seem to be missing about this issue is the very concept of the Kagura festival: its real world inspiration is an event of victory against the evil, commonly Yamata-no-orochi, so it feels like the perfect moment for the bad guys in Onigashima to go down. I think that the good guys will achieve, minimum, a partial victory and wouldn't suprise me if Orochi was defeated here at least.