You make good points, but I still believe that it is not the time for him to lose, the rewards are not very relevant as I said, because the Cross Guild gives rewards for titles, regardless of who is stronger, therefore all admirals have the same rewards (3 crowns), the only exception It's Garp, for being the hero of the navy, CG applies rewards very differently than the government, especially due to its lack of resources (compared to WG), regardless of CG rewards, Kizaru>Fuji imo.
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It may end up ending like you say, Kizaru losing is very likely, we will have to wait, imo this battle serves to demonstrate the level of the admirals, demonstrating that an admiral can lead an emperor towards an extreme diff battle, and vice versa, but something will happen that will interrupt the fight, Luffy would need hours to defeat Kizaru, something he does not have, taking into account that battles between the true top tiers last hours, or days, it would seem strange for Luffy to defeat Kiz in 1 hour or less.