I think I solved the mystery here, at least the "why" but not so much as to "who";
Polar claimed defensive last day, and since scum knows that both the tracker and watcher is town they are in a predicament.
I have been calling out for defense last phase, so what happened was, scum got rid of the tracker as they gambled on Watson being unprotected.
They would also assume I was going to watch you since you're the vig, the only reasonable thing to do then would be to commute you because then you can't shoot, and I can't see who visited you.
If scum chose to redirect you I would know who it was, as even if they redirected you to me, I would be protected so it's a no-go.
Now with this in mind, LM claiming to jail me seems less likely to come from scum PoV as it would've been redundant.