To explain how I got to this, I was never satisfied with where we were with the PoE. It did not add up. I pointed out why it didn't make sense for Scum Orca to be making himself look worse. And AM, probably not scheming much. So I was already side eyeing Ultra. Then I needed to think about how he could be scum with all the information I know, and my conclusion was the most likely thought process was he busses early and then oushes town. He gets multiple scum mates on the bus and hopes at least one gets cleared from it. Bussing in SRM in terrible but that's another matter.
Yesterday Ultra pushes for Orca, instead of Reloaded. He was fine going for Xenos, but once Xenos gets cleared off, he brings Orca up. Then I go back and I see him defend Mango when Mango says he was likely to be mislynched. And most of his defence is word salad nonsense that doesn't actually make a point. So at that point I was convinced that we lived in that scenario.
There are some parts I don't like. I can't quite grasp a scum Neeko thought process, nor can I grasp a Mango one. But that was why I shot him - from his claim I knew he wasn't town, and I'd get a good approximation of his threat level if he survived. If he flipped town, then shoot, but at least then I know I can have a bit more confidence in the AM/Orca direction. If he flips Mafia then I've identified a scum mate, and I had Psychic as a possible 3rd. And if Indie, I'd be somewhere in the middle.
I think Ultra's reaction to my entrance gives him away all things considered. He hasn't talked about Mango blocked YTW, he's looked instead to induce paranoia without addressing the obvious issue with his version of events. I think regardless of what Mango flips he is probably not town either. Possibly the Indie and Mango is scum.
But I think my favourite solution would be Ultra as scum with Mango. Here, he claims an innocent to clear the slot, and gets some backlash for the choice of investigation being suboptimal. Mango tries to shore that up by presenting himself as an easy mislynch, which Ultra is all too happy to assert support of. Then he pushes Melkor. He probably thought I would stop thinking at a certain point, or that I would get content with the PoE when I could tell there were issues with what we were going along with. He gets Mango to bus Reloaded while he tries to get other directions going off. If there is another scum mate here, it's possible that it's someone like Pot or AM. I know it won't be Xenos, Flower, Orca. But we can cross that bridge when we come to it.
In either case, they both need to go. Next time, Ultra, don't take classes from the Magic School of Scumming - unceremoniously bussing mates avails you naught!
And if you're Indie, make it less obvious that you're not actually sided with the town!