1 - This point isn't as convincing as you think it is. You've killed me Night 1 before, and moreover I think you can anticipate that Polar's legacy is unlikely to be regarded by most. So the idea that you would need me alive to share the blame after Day 1 I don't find to be all that compelling. I also think you probably regard my town game higher than the town game of most if not all the other players in the game, which could be reason enough to kill Night 1 when I'm less likely to draw protection after being wrong on Polar.
2 - That's part of it - who knows really what caused it. I do accept the point in principle, that you're more likely to use it early than late. My argument would be, if you think your fakes can hold up or you need the role that killed Night 1 used more than the janitor. So there are explanations for it that isn't simply incompetence.
3 - I don't think anyone would argue with me when I say I've had a poor to very poor game. So being in tandem with my reads isn't that great to me. I would also say that when you deal with a treestump that's playing poorly, you kind of need to agree with them as scum, but you don't want it to look like you're propping up a bad worldview. So the task really becomes "how can I get the confirmed townie onside long enough". So, again, I don't think this has to come from incompetence.
I do appreciate that should you be town, my contention may seem ridiculous. Consider it a product of thinking entirely too much about this game for what it was ever worth thinking about, and that I've struggled finding lots of players town, partly due to my own ineptitude, and partly due to the playere themselves. This is kind of the end result - forlorn resignation where I begin to pick and choose what I would rather lose to, than focus on how to win.