Controversial General Political Discussion
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afaik Pakistan has no intention or capability to toll Hormuz.
Since Hormuz is quite narrow, ships pass through Iranian and Omani territorial waters. Yesterday I read that a new protocol has been made by Iran and Oman regarding transit fees that splits countries into three groups:
1- Friendly countries, these can pass freely through the strait.
2- Neutral countries, these will pay a fee to pass.
3- Hostile countries, these won't be allowed to pass.
My opinion on this? It will make lots of money for Iran and Oman (reports saying up to 100 billion $ a year), and since Iran started charging fees they will likely keep it even after the war in some form. US and Israel fucked up not planning for this, though I think the extra dollar per barrel leaves less damage on the global economy than completely blocking the strait.
Iran's diplomacy also gains strong leverage, seeing how France is voting for Iran's favor in the UNSC in return of allowing its ships to pass.
Since Hormuz is quite narrow, ships pass through Iranian and Omani territorial waters. Yesterday I read that a new protocol has been made by Iran and Oman regarding transit fees that splits countries into three groups:
1- Friendly countries, these can pass freely through the strait.
2- Neutral countries, these will pay a fee to pass.
3- Hostile countries, these won't be allowed to pass.
My opinion on this? It will make lots of money for Iran and Oman (reports saying up to 100 billion $ a year), and since Iran started charging fees they will likely keep it even after the war in some form. US and Israel fucked up not planning for this, though I think the extra dollar per barrel leaves less damage on the global economy than completely blocking the strait.
Iran's diplomacy also gains strong leverage, seeing how France is voting for Iran's favor in the UNSC in return of allowing its ships to pass.
And, Iran charging fees - this isn't diplomacy but more akin to blackmail. Iran doesn't own Hormuz - a stretch of international water. A portion of it does pass through it's territorial water but accepting the toll means giving Iran a very significance shipping route which it doesn't own.
It will also set a bad precedent for other choke points.
During war, Iran taking leverage of it can be ignored but after it? Nope
Multiple things. The first two problems are not what they will do, it's the effect it will have on :
- fascist activist group = they will increase in size, they will be allowed to do more harm without repercussion, they will be more present and be fearless.
- Leftist activist = We will be in active danger of repression and harm. Leftists will have to be a lot more careful about their words overall as they will risk more. We will have to be more carefull about the potential attacks. Associations will be in economical danger too.
- Marginalized people = Every sign of domination will increase drastically. Racist will be more racist, people who were hidding their racist will now be openly racist. Marginalized people will find themselves in much more danger by pure political mecanic. Same for every types of domination.
Now for what they will do:
- First they will pass a lot of bad shit and probably apply a lot of their more repressive and racist politics.
- Then will then attack massively social services to reduce the cost on the back of people in needs. people like me will progressively lose more and more fundings and means to live. Which will kill a lot of people and put the rest in dire poverty or directly in the streets.
- They will demultipliate the immigration policies already in place. Frontex is already doing what Trump does with the same concentration camps, but its invisible to the population. Witht he far right, you will see it. My guess is that they will use the trump model with the same provocative methods. Every oppressive measure in that domain will be increased and people in need will suffer.
- Then they will attack the state of right just like Trump is doing. The institutions will be under attack for every side and if they manage to do their things correctly, they will progressively destroy our institution without notice.
They are smarter than Trump, they will not play the provocative game. They will act in the shadow, through the institution, respectfull of the games of politics.. but don't be fooled, they will progressively destroy everything. Just much more smoothly. Then.. ? Well if the far right passes, we will already be under a form of fascism so there is no "after", there is only "worse"
Don't be fooled into thinking that the far right is respectable or "like Macron or sarkozy". They have the same interest, yes. But they are also much more fascist, much more racist and much more radical. They are just hidding it very well at the moment, but when you know politics and their way to do things, it's only a road toward fascism.
We warned you about Trump, nobody listened, everyone laughed. Now we are warning you about the far right of France. You better listen.
I wouldn't react very differently. In fact, you would see me less and less. I don't want to risk my skin for a forum.
- fascist activist group = they will increase in size, they will be allowed to do more harm without repercussion, they will be more present and be fearless.
- Leftist activist = We will be in active danger of repression and harm. Leftists will have to be a lot more careful about their words overall as they will risk more. We will have to be more carefull about the potential attacks. Associations will be in economical danger too.
- Marginalized people = Every sign of domination will increase drastically. Racist will be more racist, people who were hidding their racist will now be openly racist. Marginalized people will find themselves in much more danger by pure political mecanic. Same for every types of domination.
Now for what they will do:
- First they will pass a lot of bad shit and probably apply a lot of their more repressive and racist politics.
- Then will then attack massively social services to reduce the cost on the back of people in needs. people like me will progressively lose more and more fundings and means to live. Which will kill a lot of people and put the rest in dire poverty or directly in the streets.
- They will demultipliate the immigration policies already in place. Frontex is already doing what Trump does with the same concentration camps, but its invisible to the population. Witht he far right, you will see it. My guess is that they will use the trump model with the same provocative methods. Every oppressive measure in that domain will be increased and people in need will suffer.
- Then they will attack the state of right just like Trump is doing. The institutions will be under attack for every side and if they manage to do their things correctly, they will progressively destroy our institution without notice.
They are smarter than Trump, they will not play the provocative game. They will act in the shadow, through the institution, respectfull of the games of politics.. but don't be fooled, they will progressively destroy everything. Just much more smoothly. Then.. ? Well if the far right passes, we will already be under a form of fascism so there is no "after", there is only "worse"
Don't be fooled into thinking that the far right is respectable or "like Macron or sarkozy". They have the same interest, yes. But they are also much more fascist, much more racist and much more radical. They are just hidding it very well at the moment, but when you know politics and their way to do things, it's only a road toward fascism.
We warned you about Trump, nobody listened, everyone laughed. Now we are warning you about the far right of France. You better listen.
I want to see far right in France just to see how Rayan, Mathias and Logiko would react 
yeah. But the pression is accelerating. And outside of the ICE matter, Obama was not attacking the institutions like that. Now Trump is systematically deconstructing and destroying fundamental institution, way of research, ways for people to obtain social aids etc.
Trump is on the fascist path, Obama was simply flirting with it.
Trump is on the fascist path, Obama was simply flirting with it.
I genuinely don't think they will do anything they say they will do, except maybe the worst things for the common people.
I expect the big companies to keep getting richer and the poor to keep getting poorer.
I don't see what institutions you're talking about. Macron is the 49-3 specialist and we saw the repressions during the Gilets Jaunes. I don't think it's going to be any worst than that. Just more of the same.
They talk a lot about immigration but they can't do much about it since they have to respect EU laws.
Anyway, it's not like I'm going to vote. I can't think of anyone worth it.
I expect the big companies to keep getting richer and the poor to keep getting poorer.
I don't see what institutions you're talking about. Macron is the 49-3 specialist and we saw the repressions during the Gilets Jaunes. I don't think it's going to be any worst than that. Just more of the same.
They talk a lot about immigration but they can't do much about it since they have to respect EU laws.
Anyway, it's not like I'm going to vote. I can't think of anyone worth it.