Luffy still had extreme strength he had trained as a kid, and even not being MC if he fruit literally was still just gumgum you have to give him credit for creativity and training himself up. Given that, he does lack common sense, so I'd have to agree with the barrel guy.
Which would put the others...:
Zoro gets executed because he refused to give in to his dumb challenge for the girl.
Usopp dies trying to save Kaya, or if he didn't find out about it, dies with the rest of the village.
Sanji.. I'd like to think they could take out Krieg. But even if they didn't, if Zoro isn't there to challenge Mihawk, Mihawk would have taken out Krieg like he was originally doing, and left. So Sanji would actually be the one to live .. at least until the Vinsmokes find him and take him away. (Reiju said Judge had been searching long before the 2 years.)
Nami probably still gets her money stolen and either dies when the town tries to rebel, or is the one to live but completely broken and useless at watching everyone get killed, probably offs herself.
Chopper stays with Dr. Kureha unless Warpol still comes back, I'd like to think he could take on Warpol if he used monster point, but if not dies.
Robin dies from Crocodile
Franky gets captured for the blueprints and is either tortured till he gives in or gets killed.
Brook drifts on the sea forever.
Jimbei stays a slave to Big Mom.