Base Gai jobbed to 30% Kisame. And Base Gai one shot Jiraya
Kisame one shot Jiraya
But more seriously:
I think Kisame is slighty weaker than Full Power Jiraya. Jiraya isn't far stronger than Kisame (unlike what Kisame suggest in P1).
I don't know if his power has been retconned but he should not be underestimated.
He also has the largest chakra reserve in Akatsuki, ahead of Nagato himself.
He also (probably since it was off panel) no diffed Ponta, a giant racoon. I don't think giant summon boss will be impossible to defeat for him (even if ofc Bunta is clearly stronger and faster than Ponta).
Base Jiraya felt compelled to immediately activate the SM against Animal Path. Personally I don't find it very glorious. And I consider Kisame>Animal Path.
Kisame has a lot of chakra, he's reactive (dodge Bee's raiton pencil. Whats Jiraya reaction time? Can he react to a Kisame who was reacting to killer bee and Gai (and Gai was able to match Rinnegan Obito during one moment) ), he can block Jiraya's Katon attacks with his Suitons (and even troll him with some giant waves), he can absorb his other ninjutsu with Samehada (who doesn't like heat although in the end Kisame and his sword defeated Roshi the magma user in 1 vs 1), or at worst Samehada will cure him from Jiraya's attacks.
And I think he's capable of defeating at least one giant toads. And in taijutsu I cleary don't see him losing against Base Jiraya.
But there's this jutsu and it make Kisame run away.
But to put things in perspective, Itachi also fled and personally I think he can One Shot Base Jiraya.
And I have the impression that for this jutsu to really trap the opponent, you have to be in a closed place (like in the hotel where Kid Naruto/Sasuke/Jiraya vs Itachi/Kisame were). Here we are on the turtle island (if the turle is on the sea, it can help Kisame).
And in the worst case, it seems Jiraya has to stay stationary to activate his jutsu. What prevents Kisame to come and attack Jiraya instead of fleeing.
In the end I don't think Jiraya will be able to beat Kisame with that (or even send him in a toad dimension as he did with Animal Path at the end of the fight against Pain). And I also don't see the Yomi Numa stopping Kisame completely either. IMO with his strength coupled with Samehada, he could free himself from the swamp. At worst he will use Samehada (and there's a big danger for Base Jiraya). So I think Kisame can win against Base Jiraya.
Jiraya will have to activate the SM. He will summons some other toad warriors (I think he have a lot of summons. But they will be sacrified since Kisame gonna beat them IMO) to buy himself time to enter sage mode.
With SM, Jiraya has the advantage. Everything is boosted (and Pa/Ma are here):
- Heavy Speed/Reflexes advantage
- Strength Advantage
-Speed Advantage.
- Numbers. Ma & Pa + J-man mean multiple attack angles
- Taijutsu advantage.
- Ninjutsu advantage is increased tenfold. Between collaborations & the power up of Senpo J-man would stomp in this category
Kisame will have a lot of difficulties even if I think Samehada can still absorb some ninjutsu.
Afterall Preta Path absorbed a lot of Sennin ninjutsu during the fight with Jiraya (and Naruto). He absorbed no diff
the giant Sennin Rasengan from Jiraya
He will turn to stone if he absorbs natural energy at the source, directly in the body of SM Jiraya or SM Naruto. The same thing will happen with Samehada I think. The sword will still be able to absorb some ninjutsu even if he/she cannot drain Jiraya of her natural energy without turning into stone (and I doubt Samehada will be able to completly absorb senpo goemon... it's a boosted fire attack if I remember well).
The only way for Kisame to really be able to fight/beat SM Jiraya is to use Kisamehada and the giant water prison.
Besides, who knows, underwater, Pa/Ma might inadvertently leave Jiraya's shoulders and if that's the case then his Sennin mode will be cancelled.
Jiraya could manage to escape by summoning a giant toad (if they're not all defeated already), in putting himeslf inside the mouth and then making the frog run away (it must be able to swim a frog). Will he manage to escape from Kisamehada (it would probably take at least two toads. One to occupy Kisamehada and the other as a means of escape. And I think about it, Kisamehada is a sensor) ??
I didn't really mention it but if Kisame merges with Samehada and uses the giant water prison against Base Jiraya, it's the only way he can escape (otherwise Base Jiraya is doomed).
SM Jiraya (if the Sennin mode is still activated) can also lets himself be attacked by Kisamehada and gets his chakra stolen on contact but this time there will the same problem as Preta Path which directly absorbed Naruto's natural energy. Kisamehada risks turning into stone and thus being defeated.
In the end, even without the frog song (so hax but which in any case takes time to activate.)since it's restricted, Jiraya still can defeat Kisame even if it's going to be very hard and he might have to rely on a bit of luck.
Jiraya may be very versatile, but Kisame is also versatile (watery prison, can summon sharks, other Suitons...) and he have strong Suiton (for example
DaikΕdan no jutsu is a very strong Suiton) and he has monstrous physical strength (breaking the Mokuton straitjacket of Yamato when he was supposed to be exhausted after being defeated by G7 Gai Hirudora).
By hype, Jiraya is far better. But by feats Kisame is very close to him.
Jiraya extrem diff. Maybe even a draw.