Current Events Orochi's move: a mistake or a success?

[Dr. Spook]

The most recent chapters has shown that Orochi had knowledge - via the traitor - not only the complete plans that Kinemon utilized in this arc against him and Kaido, but also locations of the sunny, the ships constructed, the amount of rebels involved, and the rendezvous point agreed by the alliance: Port Tokage

In response, Orochi ordered the destruction of the bridges that linked all the regions of Wano to Udon - except at one key point: The bridge linking the Flower Capital to Udon. Incidentally, all the regions are still linked to the capital; Kuri, Kibi and Ringo are still linked together, all ultimately linking to the Flower Capital as well.

Spoiler: ch 959 - all bridges destroyed by Orochi

However, the following morning, Orochi assembled the usual 10,000 men to accompany him to Onigashima for the banquet with Kaido, and also Apoo, the only intact supernova, could be joining this festival. Orochi then directs Kyoshiro to guard the Flower Capital.

Spoiler: ch 954: Apoo wants to join the banquet

Along with other troops appointed to escort the Shogun to Onigashima, we also see:

- the ninjas under Fukurukuju
- the Mimawarigumi members

Spoiler: ch 951 - the Mimawarigumi members are introduced

Spoiler: ch 958: Kyoshiro appointed to guard the capital

Spoiler: ch 958 (same page) - a closer look at who's with the Shogun

RED - Ninjas under Fukurukuju
GREEN - Mimawarigumi troops

Context: Here, Fukurukuju tells the Shogun - in the ship - about Kyoshiro, whilst a member of the Mimawarigumi remarks how unlucky Kyoshiro is. This shows that both these parties are part of the escorts of the Shogun to Onigashima.

What does all this mean?

It means that there is only one way where the alliance - 4,200 strong - will rendezvous to Port Tokage: they must invade and take the Flower Capital, but with Orochi taking most of his troops away to Onigashima, he has left the Flower Capital nearly vulnerable - appointing just Kyoshiro, to guard the city.

Incidentally, samurai who chose to join the rebellion are also being locked up in the Flower Capital; now with the city being nearly defenseless, these rebels could be freed if the alliance attacks the capital, granted that Kyoshiro (and maybe his goons) is the only one capable of resistance.

With Luffy and his crew, Law, minks and other members like Hyogoro and the Yakuza bosses, takeover of the Flower Capital is incredibly likely, thus freeing the prisoners and adding more numbers to this alliance.

Spoiler: ch 951 - "at least 1000 people in the Rasetsu Prison district"

With the Flower Capital nearly vulnerable at such a critical time for Orochi, what do you think will happen during his stay in Onigashima?

1) Will the entire alliance continue their plan, seeing that their rendezvous will be delayed - but enter the Flower Capital this time?

2) Who else do you think are guarding the Flower Capital besides Kyoshiro? Only him? Other supernovas perhaps?

3) What could be the consequences for Orochi if the ninja-pirate-mink alliance took the Flower Capital?

4) Is Orochi really underestimating the rebel alliance? For him to gather 10,000 soldiers to Onigashima at a critical time - as he does every year - you would've thought he would reserve some to guard the Flower Capital at least, given his cautiousness, but nope.. he didn't.

What do you guys think?

UPDATE: Added a poll.

 

[Xione]

It's a mistake for sure.

 

[Mr. Anderson]

1) Will the entire alliance continue their plan, seeing that their rendezvous will be delayed - but enter the Flower Capital this time?

This seems highly possible tbh, with the bridges gone they'll end up rendezvousing at entrance to the flower capital with only the Scabbards being out of the loop.

2) Who else do you think are guarding the Flower Capital besides Kyoshiro? Only him? Other supernovas perhaps?

Kyoshiro's Yakuza goons and maybe the flying six imo. There has to at least be more than just Kyoshiro involved. That would make storming the capital way too easy.

3) What could be the consequences for Orochi if the ninja-pirate-mink alliance took the Flower Capital?

He loses his control over the country instantly. Especially if the Rebellion reveals the truth all while everyone is feasting at the banquet.

4) Is Orochi really underestimating the rebel alliance? For him to gather 10,000 soldiers to Onigashima at a critical time - as he does every year - you would've thought he would reserve some to guard the Flower Capital at least, given his cautiousness, but nope.. he didn't.

He's definitely underestimating them. Or in the very least too overconfident in the fact he knew their plan beforehand. It's crazy he didn't think ahead at the possibility they might turn around and storm his captial instead. Should have used that same 10,000 soldiers to ambush the alliance at the rendevous instead, would have worked out better for him in the long run.

 

[Longleg Larry]

It was definitely a mistake. Not so much to take out the bridges, but more Orochi leaving the capital at all. When he leaves, so does the propaganda that he spreads. None of his men respect him, the citizens are just scared, & his top dog is more a servant to the position of shogun than Orochi himself. I dont think the alliance will have to fight anybody to take over the capital. 1 Usopp speech later, its theirs

 

[Dr. Spook]

He's definitely underestimating them. Or in the very least too overconfident in the fact he knew their plan beforehand. It's crazy he didn't think ahead at the possibility they might turn around and storm his captial instead. Should have used that same 10,000 soldiers to ambush the alliance at the rendevous instead, would have worked out better for him in the long run.

Yeah, I believe Orochi's mistake is exactly that. He could've stationed those soldiers to guard the capital in case of an attack - seeing that his fears of the scabbards returning were confirmed, and that he knows it is the 20th year after Oden's death - or at least cut off the capital from other districts except for Udon.

It seems Orochi not only underestimated the scabbards, but also underestimated those who have joined the fight... Orochi didn't even expect the scabbards to attack Onigashima themselves, he was just stopping them from going there, not even considering what would happen to the Flower Capital in his absence.

It's crazy to think that - as far as we know - he stationed no-one but Kyoshiro.. and whilst you have people in the alliance such as Luffy, Zoro, Law, Sanji, minks, Nekomamushi, and even the yakuza bosses... in Kyoshiro's case, you have his goons, which are complete fodder to every named character in the alliance.

But I agree that the flying six might also be part of the defense, coz if not, the flower capital could really just be taken over in no time at all.

 

[bottleinlaw]

Yeah, I believe Orochi's mistake is exactly that. He could've stationed those soldiers to guard the capital in case of an attack - seeing that his fears of the scabbards returning were confirmed, and that he knows it is the 20th year after Oden's death - or at least cut off the capital from other districts except for Udon.

It seems Orochi not only underestimated the scabbards, but also underestimated those who have joined the fight... Orochi didn't even expect the scabbards to attack Onigashima themselves, he was just stopping them from going there, not even considering what would happen to the Flower Capital in his absence.

It's crazy to think that - as far as we know - he stationed no-one but Kyoshiro.. and whilst you have people in the alliance such as Luffy, Zoro, Law, Sanji, minks, Nekomamushi, and even the yakuza bosses... in Kyoshiro's case, you have his goons, which are complete fodder to every named character in the alliance.

But I agree that the flying six might also be part of the defense, coz if not, the flower capital could really just be taken over in no time at all.

Yeah, that could be the thing to turn things around for the heroes.

 

[djiayebee]

highly possible yes... by the way, i just realized but 4,200 + nearly 1,000 = "at least 5,000" as Franky was trying to achieve for the ships capacity... just saying

 

[Finalbeta]

It's a mistake for sure.

Never expected too much from him. Sadly hype was on his behalf but I never bought that

 

[Lampyris]

The capital falling to the Alliance is nowhere near as bad as it seems, and that's assuming they can even do it. The plan was that 4,000 only stood a chance against 40,000 because they were drunk off their asses and a surprise attack occurred. But changing that up in one night to invade a city of mostly festive civilians, holding down this capital from a Yonko army, and actually think you can defeat them on their terms is a series of mistakes, one after another.

With the Flower Capital nearly vulnerable at such a critical time for Orochi, what do you think will happen during his stay in Onigashima?

1) Will the entire alliance continue their plan, seeing that their rendezvous will be delayed - but enter the Flower Capital this time?

This requires a reorganization of plans for the invaders, in a single night and doing so when supply lines and communications have been shut down. If you charge in with numbers and spirit but not a plan, you get mowed down. Your 4,000 are more like 400. They are not prepared to do siege warfare, all that time building ships should have gone towards building canons and fortified barriers to hold down a city. After that you need a plan for your city to not be easily cut off because that's exactly what follows. The main leaders, the retainers, are not even present and on their way to die in Onigashima.

They still have invade and take the city. Kyoshiro just has to play defense and hold out for one night. He knows the infrastructure, he knows the choke points, he knows where emergency supplies are hidden. Did Robin gather intel on how security in the Flower Capital is lined up, what are their numbers, who are the big names? An invasion requires all of that. The alliance has to come up with all of these things on the fly and relate this information to each other.

3) What could be the consequences for Orochi if the ninja-pirate-mink alliance took the Flower Capital?

Orochi and Kaido control the rest of Wano, landlocking the capital with no ports. The Beast pirates actually have ships and can surrounded the capital from all sides. Even if they somehow take the capital in a single night, Orochi and Kaido can cut off their food and other supply lines and starve the city then let their forces storm in.

If anything, having all these enemies conveniently isolating themselves in a single city will make Orochi and Kaido's job far easier. Rebels that would be hiding all over Wano and outside of it are all lined up here for the slaughter. Kaido one-shotted Luffy, and let Law go because he ran and hid and didn't make stupid decisions at that time that would let Kaido easily find him. If you have to hold down the capital, who is going to run away from Kaido and hide? He brings his club and has a ball of a time.

4) Is Orochi really underestimating the rebel alliance? For him to gather 10,000 soldiers to Onigashima at a critical time - as he does every year - you would've thought he would reserve some to guard the Flower Capital at least, given his cautiousness, but nope.. he didn't.

This presents an excellent opportunity for Orochi to get people on his side. No one believed him about the Samurai coming back, but now they're at every citizen in the capital's doorstep and violently taking over. They become the aggressors, the citizens will see the alliance as criminals, invaders and other evil foreigners. You don't change their mind by plunging the capital in chaos with no enemies other than Kyoshiro in sight. Orochi and the Beast Pirates take back the capital as heroes from pirates who ruined what should have been the most peaceful day of the year. Orochi would be delighted to wage a small war if he can get his unfaithful advisers permanently on his side and gain the face of a true leader not by propaganda but from actual accomplishments saving his people.

Orochi has little to lose here if the Alliance makes the foolish mistake of taking this battle to the citizens in the capital instead of to the Beast Pirates in Onigashima. The biggest obstacle is that future Shogun Momo, the Scabbards and the Alliance need to be seen as heroes, but every citizen in the capital will see Wano being taken back in an illegitimate manner as the local population is held hostage for their power struggle.