Or a third possibility he has awakened and Oda isn't showing how he's awakened.
It could be the whole fish -> dragon thing is the awakening, or his buff-hybrid forms were it. Or maybe flaming Kaido.
I'd argue on several points
- If he was awakened the whole time, isn't this a monumental waste of energy? Why would he need to fight anyone awakened? Including his daughter?
- the model of his fruit is a Seiryu, it was always a dragon, not a fish. Marco was always a Phoenix, not a generic bird. Luffy always had rubber powers as Nika. None of the dinosaur zoans are literally dragons, they are model: dinosaur and unawakened.
- Again, the point I was making that it's weird if the Buff/Avatar forms are awakening, solely because they are temporary. Luffy's is a fixed transformation. I can see the buff form potentially still being this and Kaido has mastered his ability to where he can transform this way, but Oda never made it obvious.
The issue is that nothing is clear, yet with all of those other distinctions, it is.