Future Events OP is not ending in 5 years.
- Thread starter Bepo
- Start date
At this point we've gotten quited used to Oda and the editors stating that the series will end within 5 years. One common misapprehension is that it isn't specified from what point onwards this supposed countdown would commence. Would OP end in 5 years after Wano has been completed? Well then it isn't really 5 years. Would OP end in 5 years from when Oda first made that statement then we would have roughly 3.5 years left. I think the best method in measuring how long OP will go on is simply to look at the span of the Pre-Timeskip sagas and comparing them to were we are right now.
As you can see, the Pre-Timeskip part can be divided into 6 sagas each containing multiple arcs (Thriller bark is the only exception).
In the Post-Timeskip era Oda has maintained the same formula however the reason why the arcs were shorter in the Pre-Timeskip part is because the story structure was different, Oda introduces far more characters now and has to give reasonable screentime to each of them. Compare Alabasta to Dressrosa for instance.
Alabasta essentially revolves around the strawhats having to defeat Baroque works whereas Dressrosa involves far more characters than only the strawhats, this is why we ended up with so many fights from the colloseum fighters. The same thing is happening in the current Wano arc where so many factions and people are involved so it's only natural for these arcs to be as long as they are.
Let's say Wano ends in 2021. At this point Oda would have to do 3 more sagas which would be a minimum of around 5/6 arcs.
This is how I could see the story unfolding:
Elbaf Saga : transitional arc (short) + Elbaf arc (long) (60-80 chapters)
Raftel Saga : Loadstar Island (short) + Raftel (short/long?) (40 chapters)
Final War Saga : Final war (long) + epilogue (short) (120-140 chapters)
Given the fact that both Dressrosa and Wano exceed 100 chapters I feel like it would be a reasonable assumption to say that the final war arc would have to be atleast close to that number, especially considering that so many characters would get involved and that Luffy usually fights his opponents multiple times throughout an arc.
Let's do the math and assume the lowest number possible. 60+40+120 = 220
I personally believe this number would be higher considering that Oda usually tends to drag out the story and create suspense and build-up.
Now let's look at how many chapters Oda releases every year.
As you can see, the number of chapters that Oda is realising per year is gradually declining but let's just say that it stays the same from this point onward (2021)
36 x 5 = 180.
This is the basically the main reason why I can't believe the whole ''OP is ending in 5 years'' thing (which would be even less now). It would mean that Oda has to complete the Wano arc and do 3 additional sagas all within 180 chapters. I'd say it would be more along the lines of 7 or 8 years.
What do you think?
As you can see, the Pre-Timeskip part can be divided into 6 sagas each containing multiple arcs (Thriller bark is the only exception).
In the Post-Timeskip era Oda has maintained the same formula however the reason why the arcs were shorter in the Pre-Timeskip part is because the story structure was different, Oda introduces far more characters now and has to give reasonable screentime to each of them. Compare Alabasta to Dressrosa for instance.
Alabasta essentially revolves around the strawhats having to defeat Baroque works whereas Dressrosa involves far more characters than only the strawhats, this is why we ended up with so many fights from the colloseum fighters. The same thing is happening in the current Wano arc where so many factions and people are involved so it's only natural for these arcs to be as long as they are.
Let's say Wano ends in 2021. At this point Oda would have to do 3 more sagas which would be a minimum of around 5/6 arcs.
This is how I could see the story unfolding:
Elbaf Saga : transitional arc (short) + Elbaf arc (long) (60-80 chapters)
Raftel Saga : Loadstar Island (short) + Raftel (short/long?) (40 chapters)
Final War Saga : Final war (long) + epilogue (short) (120-140 chapters)
Given the fact that both Dressrosa and Wano exceed 100 chapters I feel like it would be a reasonable assumption to say that the final war arc would have to be atleast close to that number, especially considering that so many characters would get involved and that Luffy usually fights his opponents multiple times throughout an arc.
Let's do the math and assume the lowest number possible. 60+40+120 = 220
I personally believe this number would be higher considering that Oda usually tends to drag out the story and create suspense and build-up.
Now let's look at how many chapters Oda releases every year.
As you can see, the number of chapters that Oda is realising per year is gradually declining but let's just say that it stays the same from this point onward (2021)
36 x 5 = 180.
This is the basically the main reason why I can't believe the whole ''OP is ending in 5 years'' thing (which would be even less now). It would mean that Oda has to complete the Wano arc and do 3 additional sagas all within 180 chapters. I'd say it would be more along the lines of 7 or 8 years.
What do you think?
8-12 years seem more realistic.
Oda’s been quite accurate with the story percentage predictions since the timeskip, it’s how long he‘s taking to tell that story that he muddles up. The timeskip was 60%, Dressrosa 70%, Zou and WCI 80% and after Wano its 90%.
He won’t make the five year (four now) because of his nature as an author, but he is trying to bash it out of the way. Stuff like Big Mom being dealt with as a sideshow here instead of on Elbaf, that’s an attempt to get the series finished quicker. There‘s a Marco/Weevil plotline that seems to have been dropped entirely.
With what he’s said, and the way the story is going, everything after Wano is one cohesive story or saga. Elbaf, Laugh Tale, final war, all part of the same overarching tale, like the first couple of islands in the Grand Line all led to Alabasta. There’s not going to be a Lodestar Arc, the story doesn’t need it. Anything the story does not need, will not be done, there won’t be any deviations from the plot.
Wano will probably end at 1050, start of next year, Elbaf a 40-60 chapter arc, then Laugh Tale and the final war will really be the one arc, like W7 and EL (or Wano and Onigashima) that’ll be 100 +, maybe 150 odd chapters.
If people move away from the idea that Elbaf, Laugh Tale and the final war are all entirely separate arcs, and instead see it as all part of the one, final story like Whiskey Peak, Little Garden, Drum and Alabasta were, you’ll see how he can get it done a bit quicker.
He won’t make the five year (four now) because of his nature as an author, but he is trying to bash it out of the way. Stuff like Big Mom being dealt with as a sideshow here instead of on Elbaf, that’s an attempt to get the series finished quicker. There‘s a Marco/Weevil plotline that seems to have been dropped entirely.
With what he’s said, and the way the story is going, everything after Wano is one cohesive story or saga. Elbaf, Laugh Tale, final war, all part of the same overarching tale, like the first couple of islands in the Grand Line all led to Alabasta. There’s not going to be a Lodestar Arc, the story doesn’t need it. Anything the story does not need, will not be done, there won’t be any deviations from the plot.
Wano will probably end at 1050, start of next year, Elbaf a 40-60 chapter arc, then Laugh Tale and the final war will really be the one arc, like W7 and EL (or Wano and Onigashima) that’ll be 100 +, maybe 150 odd chapters.
If people move away from the idea that Elbaf, Laugh Tale and the final war are all entirely separate arcs, and instead see it as all part of the one, final story like Whiskey Peak, Little Garden, Drum and Alabasta were, you’ll see how he can get it done a bit quicker.
H
First of all it was never said OP would end in 5 years. What was said is that most adventure of OP would be over in 5 years. As I see this is pretty much founding OP itself. After that only rests final war which I easily believe to be a 2 or even 3 years arc. And we may still have more content between or after that. So at least 10 more years.
H
You couldn't be more wrong. Wano is not even finished and I bet Final War Arc will be at least same size if not bigger than this. Laugh Tale probably will be a big arc. Elbaf may be Zou's leght or regular arc (not sure what that means) lenght.
Wano started 2018 right? Is like 3 years arc already but I guess it will end this year. So we have at least 3 years only for Final War. At least 1 year for Elbaf and 2 for Laugh Tale. This will be at least 2028 since Wano is most likely finish at end of year. And I would say this is not the only arcs or content we have left. We may have something like Reverie lenght to explain a few things like Luffy destroying Fishmen Island.
Wano started 2018 right? Is like 3 years arc already but I guess it will end this year. So we have at least 3 years only for Final War. At least 1 year for Elbaf and 2 for Laugh Tale. This will be at least 2028 since Wano is most likely finish at end of year. And I would say this is not the only arcs or content we have left. We may have something like Reverie lenght to explain a few things like Luffy destroying Fishmen Island.
Oh do I have the honor to meet Oda here? Thanks for enlightening us with your profuse knowledge.
Except the real Oda has been consistent with his recent declarations when it comes to timespans. But it's not even mostly about those. Don't act like you pretend to be in his mind.
First of all Wano will most likely end in 1 year of time going by story patterns, also calling Laugh Tale Big arc is your fervid imagination, nothing implicates that yet, even if they will face the BB Pirates out there.
The Laugh Tale + WG final plot might take 2 years, just like the final war might take 2 to build and process entirely. I counted 4 right now + 1 (Wano). And I'm no Oda, this is speculation based off analysis.
Then we should get a few content in the middle and post major events. That may add up to 1-2 years.
If you do the math it's 6-7 years. If Oda wants to speed up the process consider it an optimistic bet.
Except the real Oda has been consistent with his recent declarations when it comes to timespans. But it's not even mostly about those. Don't act like you pretend to be in his mind.
First of all Wano will most likely end in 1 year of time going by story patterns, also calling Laugh Tale Big arc is your fervid imagination, nothing implicates that yet, even if they will face the BB Pirates out there.
The Laugh Tale + WG final plot might take 2 years, just like the final war might take 2 to build and process entirely. I counted 4 right now + 1 (Wano). And I'm no Oda, this is speculation based off analysis.
Then we should get a few content in the middle and post major events. That may add up to 1-2 years.
If you do the math it's 6-7 years. If Oda wants to speed up the process consider it an optimistic bet.
H
Oda statements are the biggest jokes in OP. He never was consistent with that. Just do the math and you will see they are all inconsistent with previous ones.
I'm talking about Final War arc only. It can't be less then Wano. Wano took since Punk Hazard to build up, that is one thing. Final War can have less time to build up, that is fine, but the arc itself can't be smaller than Wano Arc since it is a bigger war.
I'm talking about Final War arc only. It can't be less then Wano. Wano took since Punk Hazard to build up, that is one thing. Final War can have less time to build up, that is fine, but the arc itself can't be smaller than Wano Arc since it is a bigger war.
Not exactly true. He reaffirmed it last year in vol 97's SBS: https://worstgen.alwaysdata.net/forum/threads/volume-97-coming-on-september-2020.5112/post-706840
*And yes, there are multiple translations for this, but most of the well known translators have translated it similarly to this one.*
However there was a huge discussion about his words. He doesn't actually mention serialization will end in 5 years, but rather Luffy's Journey. Considering how jokey and literal Oda can be when it comes to answering questions like this, many people have taken it to potentially be "5 years until Luffy becomes Pirate King". However, that doesn't mean the story ends. If the crew is meant to find one piece and the true history BEFORE the final war, the approximation may make actual sense.
Essentially Luffy's Journey to Laugh Tale comes to an end in roughly 5 years (not going to be perfect) but the actual final arc/war/conclusion could take any number of years after that fact. There are are interviews with Oda from like 10 years ago where he gives an original outline of the series:
"I was going to finish ONE PIECE within 5 years.
Every crew joins before Grand Line. (1- 1.5 year)
Great adventure (3 years)
Final arc (1 year)" Sound Recording (2012)
You can see that whatever that final arc is (assuredly the final war), it was meant to be signficant enough to warrant a large chunk of the story/series (20%). Now, he claimed the JOURNEY was 80% done before Wano, not the series. He always speaks in measurement of Luffys Journey, not actual serialization.
I feel that this is fundamentally important, because that final conflict will probably not be related to his journey.
*And yes, there are multiple translations for this, but most of the well known translators have translated it similarly to this one.*
However there was a huge discussion about his words. He doesn't actually mention serialization will end in 5 years, but rather Luffy's Journey. Considering how jokey and literal Oda can be when it comes to answering questions like this, many people have taken it to potentially be "5 years until Luffy becomes Pirate King". However, that doesn't mean the story ends. If the crew is meant to find one piece and the true history BEFORE the final war, the approximation may make actual sense.
Essentially Luffy's Journey to Laugh Tale comes to an end in roughly 5 years (not going to be perfect) but the actual final arc/war/conclusion could take any number of years after that fact. There are are interviews with Oda from like 10 years ago where he gives an original outline of the series:
"I was going to finish ONE PIECE within 5 years.
Every crew joins before Grand Line. (1- 1.5 year)
Great adventure (3 years)
Final arc (1 year)" Sound Recording (2012)
You can see that whatever that final arc is (assuredly the final war), it was meant to be signficant enough to warrant a large chunk of the story/series (20%). Now, he claimed the JOURNEY was 80% done before Wano, not the series. He always speaks in measurement of Luffys Journey, not actual serialization.
I feel that this is fundamentally important, because that final conflict will probably not be related to his journey.
I think we need at least 6+ years to wrap everything up and end the series nicely (around 200 chapters)
But there’s no saying that Oda will attempt to wrap everything up and flesh out all of the upcoming fights. If he rushes and focuses purely on advancing the plot and also takes less breaks, I think he can finish in less and closer to the deadline he estimated. I don’t mind if he exceeds the 5 years (or 4 now I guess), I just hope that he doesn’t half ass the rest of the series
But there’s no saying that Oda will attempt to wrap everything up and flesh out all of the upcoming fights. If he rushes and focuses purely on advancing the plot and also takes less breaks, I think he can finish in less and closer to the deadline he estimated. I don’t mind if he exceeds the 5 years (or 4 now I guess), I just hope that he doesn’t half ass the rest of the series
Honesty Vol 97's SBS solidified it more for me. That yeah, maybe in 5 years Luffy's journey is what actually ends. The road to Laugh Tale, PK, One Piece and the Void Century. However what comes after and what is supposed to really wrap up the series is this massive final war that will "be unlike anything we've ever seen" according to Oda.
To even get to that war we need buildup. We are still missing a Road Poneglyph (technically 2, since the one on Wano seems MIA as well for now), clearly missing islands that will be visited (Elbaf, Lodestar, God Valley), we are missing the same level of characterization for Shanks/Blackbeard/Akainu/Im, etc that Kaido and BM have gotten for 300+ chapters.
To me it fundamentally can't end soon unless he intends to end it terribly without payoff. At this point however, the discussion is moot until we see what his plans are post-Wano. If we continue the adventuring as expected (i.e. Vegapunk or Elbaf) and this has nothing to do with the ending of the series, then there is no way it ends in the next 3-4 years (which will be 2-3 once Wano is done).
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I think its always been a measure of progress on Luffy's Journey to Laugh Tale and One Piece. That's it. Wano being 80% of that journey specifically makes sense imo. Elbaf could be 90%. Lodestar could be 95%. Laugh Tale could be 100% and by that point we'd understand that it potentially has nothing to do with the actual final conflict. That might be a 5+ year storyline all by itself. Hes notorious for playing games with his words.
"Rather than saying the serialization is ending, it's when the most interesting part of Luffy's Journey comes to an end: the question of What is One Piece?"
I 100% do not expect this manga to end the moment we find out what One Piece is, that would be extremely anti-climactic. Why would we also find out what the world government did and what Luffy can do about it...after defeating the World Government? There is a clear structure that needs to happen with the story to make sense. Roger found out and couldn't do anything. The difference is, Luffy can and will do something, but he first needs to get to Laugh Tale.
Edit: essentially from the beginning of Wano to everything after, he will be building and escalating said final war. But Oda is not one to rush his plotlines. Sure, he can, but it doesn't mean he will. This final war will have 5x the characters Wano has and be multiple times bigger than Marineford, just when you realize who is left and who will probably fight in said War. It literally cannot, and wont start immediately after Wano (or at least involve Luffy). It makes little sense considering his journey is not over
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Even Greg in that same thread questions if "Hai" is being used as an acknowledgment of the question at hand (as in "Okay, here we go") rather than actually saying "Yes." In response to the question
Remember, Oda continues to elaborate on what that might signify in the same SBS question. He avoids saying serialization will end, but states the most interesting part of Luffy's Journey will (allegedly) be over.
I think we can all agree that it's probably not happening, and if it does it probably wouldnt be done well.
It's kind of along the lines of everything I've been trying to tell people with Wano: he won't rush the arc. 100+ chapters in and there is no fundamental sign of it ending relatively soon. He still has full intention to tackle every character plotline in the arc, and he does so at his own pace.
Now multiply that by the number of relevant characters factored into the end. Its highly dependent on what he deems "important", but even then there are 2 more Yonko, the Marines and World Government to deal with at a baseline. That doesn't even include a myriad of other factions like Revolutionaries, Underworld, Vegapunk, Elbaf, etc...
Remember, Oda continues to elaborate on what that might signify in the same SBS question. He avoids saying serialization will end, but states the most interesting part of Luffy's Journey will (allegedly) be over.
I think we can all agree that it's probably not happening, and if it does it probably wouldnt be done well.
It's kind of along the lines of everything I've been trying to tell people with Wano: he won't rush the arc. 100+ chapters in and there is no fundamental sign of it ending relatively soon. He still has full intention to tackle every character plotline in the arc, and he does so at his own pace.
Now multiply that by the number of relevant characters factored into the end. Its highly dependent on what he deems "important", but even then there are 2 more Yonko, the Marines and World Government to deal with at a baseline. That doesn't even include a myriad of other factions like Revolutionaries, Underworld, Vegapunk, Elbaf, etc...
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