Don´t think, in the japenese kabuki theater in act 3 the Heros getting a tragedy lose(in that case Luffy and co who are the mainprotagonist of this arc) and the villian take the W. Since we know already that Oden was gonna dying, the whole "tragedy" element wouldn´t have the same impact for our heroes. Also in Act4 the Heros make their comeback and in the end take the W.
In my opinion the Onigashima war end with a tragedy and the whole war continue later again on whole wano country.
Act3 tragedy
Act4 Win for the heroes.
Since Luffy and co already making their move in this chapter in act3, it doesn´t fit to the kabuki theater play where the heroes making their comeback in act4.