Absolutely disagree here. Maybe they get a huge L in a fight before the fire Festival, when they randomly meet each other, but at the fire Festival, there are waaaaay to much People included as that luffy can take a L. First of all, the whole prophecy is coming together for this day, so even when some People are not sure about the whole Thing, they are bonded with that date. And they will be there, the whole udon plot, the whole red scabbard stuff and even Mr. Fox and the sword are meant to come together at this date. When all These People, all this fates, come together for this one fight, then there arent any Options for Wano other than winning against Kaido. If they take a L there, all These People, means more or less complete Wano, will just die. Kaido will kill them right there and the whole prophecy-plot will be destoyed. Sure, from plot it is possible for the strawhats to escape, but not the thousands of People which are following there, not all the weapons, not the all Crews, not all minks... to much People would tdie there and all of them would only die for luffys L, luffy couldnt and wouldnt take that.