I know. That's what I just said.
-Luffy said he wants 10 nakama
-Blackbeard his arch nemesis has 10 nakama
=It's likely Luffy will have 10 nakama
Failing to see how that's a weak argument
Vivi is an honorary member. She isn't included in Oda's official straw hat count and since she can't fight, she's not the missing member they need to fight BB.
I know Oda adds red herrings. I called Yamao being just that since day 1. Much like Carrot "becoming the queen of Zou" is intended to distract from the possibility that she might stowaway again. Subversive affirmation if you will.
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You gotta remember, right before Oda does a massive twist, he goes extra hard out of his way to convince you that there's absolutely no way the twist will happen.
Intentionally showed "Kaku and Lucci" KO'ed to rule them out of suspicion moments before the big reveal.
Had Vivi come all the way to the coast at the arranged time, just to say that she was staying
He had Pudding's tearful farewell and showed sympathetic memories from her childhood
He had Yamao say the Oden line, knowing full well that most would interpret this as her deciding to sail away
If Oda's very strongly pushing one outcome, yet at the same time tactfully leaving the door open for a different outcome you should automatically suspect some kind of twist. That's why Carrot's fate has ginormous red flags since she never accepted. If she had, then she'd be finished. But off panelling her response suddenly made it extremely likely that she did the exact opposite of what Oda was leading you to believe.