Introduction
While we wait for the next chapter, why not have fun predicting the bounties of the Tobi Roppo. I would offer points based on how close your bounty prediction was to the actual bounty. It is possible to receive negative points if your prediction was too far off. Your predictions would be graded on accuracy, so the lower the percentage error between your bounty prediction and the actual bounty, the more points you would gain.
To the victor go bragging rights.
:cheers:
If this contest is successful, I would consider holding bounty prediction contests for other groups:
Scoring System
This is the basic scoring system. For each prediction you make, based on the accuracy of your prediction you would get.
I would sum up your 6 inividual predictions to get a prediction for total bounty. It has twice as many points as the individual member predictions, so I would just multpily whatever your score would ordinarily be by 2.
Sample Scoring
Penalty
Predictions
Conclusion
This post may have been a lot to take in, so if you have any questions feel free to ask. The contest is for fun, and I'm not an unreasonable person, so don't hesitate to raise your concerns. Suggestions to improve the contest would also be appreciated.
The Google Sheets where I track points is visible to everyone, and the calculation of the scores would be handled by cell formulae, so there's not much need to worry about inaccurate scores. That said, I've disclosed the formulae I use so you can verify yourself. If you identify any discrepancies in scoring, do not hesitate to bring it to my attention.
May Fortuna smile upon you.
While we wait for the next chapter, why not have fun predicting the bounties of the Tobi Roppo. I would offer points based on how close your bounty prediction was to the actual bounty. It is possible to receive negative points if your prediction was too far off. Your predictions would be graded on accuracy, so the lower the percentage error between your bounty prediction and the actual bounty, the more points you would gain.
To the victor go bragging rights.
:cheers:
If this contest is successful, I would consider holding bounty prediction contests for other groups:
- Ex Shichibukai
- Other Yonkou executives.
- Post Wano Strawhats
- Post Wano supernova
Scoring System
This is the basic scoring system. For each prediction you make, based on the accuracy of your prediction you would get.
- < 10% error: 10 points
- 10% - 19.99% error: 9 points
- ...
- 90% - 99.99% error: 1 point
- 100% - 109.99% error: -1 point
- 190% - 199.99% error: -9 points
The % error is calculated as:
This basically means:
In general, if your error is X%, then your points can be calculated via:
This basically means:
Predictions would only be recorded to the nearest million belli.
This basically means:
- Take the difference between the predicted bounty and the actual bounty.
- Divide the result by the actual bounty.
- Take the absolute value of the result.
- Multiply by 100%.
In general, if your error is X%, then your points can be calculated via:
This basically means:
- Divide your % error by 10.
- Round down the result to the nearest whole number.
- Subtract the new result from 10.
Predictions would only be recorded to the nearest million belli.
I would sum up your 6 inividual predictions to get a prediction for total bounty. It has twice as many points as the individual member predictions, so I would just multpily whatever your score would ordinarily be by 2.
Sample Scoring
Here's a sample calculation. Suppose John guesses 150 million belli for Page One, and Page One's actual bounty is 250 million.
First we would calculate the % error:
Then we would calculate the points received:
So John would gain 6 points.
[
- Predicted bounty: 150 million
- Actual bounty: 250 million
First we would calculate the % error:
Then we would calculate the points received:
So John would gain 6 points.
[
Penalty
Ideally, all predictions would be submitted before any Tobi Roppo bounties are revealed. However, some bounties may be revealed before some people have made their predictions. I wouldn't outright disqualify folks once the first Tobi Roppo bounty has been revealed, but anyone who submits their predictions after information has been revealed would have fewer points to gain. This is because knowing the bounty of a Tobi Roppo member provides information about the bounties of other members. For example if it's revealed that Who's Who's bounty is 500 million, I could guess that most of the Tobi Roppo have bounties below 500 million.
The penalty system I would use is as follows. If you predict for an undisclosed member after:
You can't predict for a member if their bounty in particular has been revealed.
So for the sample example above, if John made their prediction after two other Tobi Roppo members (say Who's Who and Sasaki) had their bounties revealed, then John would gain (6 - 3 = 3) points.
The penalty system I would use is as follows. If you predict for an undisclosed member after:
- 1 Tobi Roppo bounty has been revealed: -1.5 points
- 2 Tobi Roppo bounties have been revealed: -3.0 points
- ...
- 5 Tobi Roppo bounties have been revealed: -7.5 points
You can't predict for a member if their bounty in particular has been revealed.
So for the sample example above, if John made their prediction after two other Tobi Roppo members (say Who's Who and Sasaki) had their bounties revealed, then John would gain (6 - 3 = 3) points.
Predictions
To make a prediction, make a post as below:
It is important that you have "Predictions" bolded.
Please tag me when making your predictions. If you want to update a prediction, make a new post (also tagging me). DO NOT EDIT YOUR PREDICTION POSTS.
I recommend that you have prediction posts separate from other posts and that they contain only your predictions.
If I've seen your prediction, I will reply to it and acknowledge it. Here's the Google Sheets document where I would be tracking the predictions.
This is how it looks like:
It is important that you have "Predictions" bolded.
Please tag me when making your predictions. If you want to update a prediction, make a new post (also tagging me). DO NOT EDIT YOUR PREDICTION POSTS.
I recommend that you have prediction posts separate from other posts and that they contain only your predictions.
If I've seen your prediction, I will reply to it and acknowledge it. Here's the Google Sheets document where I would be tracking the predictions.
This is how it looks like:
Conclusion
This post may have been a lot to take in, so if you have any questions feel free to ask. The contest is for fun, and I'm not an unreasonable person, so don't hesitate to raise your concerns. Suggestions to improve the contest would also be appreciated.
The Google Sheets where I track points is visible to everyone, and the calculation of the scores would be handled by cell formulae, so there's not much need to worry about inaccurate scores. That said, I've disclosed the formulae I use so you can verify yourself. If you identify any discrepancies in scoring, do not hesitate to bring it to my attention.
May Fortuna smile upon you.
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@Luffy is the mc, @panta_rhei, @Princeley
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