Sorry but where has this idea Smoker could join even come from?
I swear to god it is plain as day and has been made completely obvious that he’s going to be a big shot Marine
"You don't have to be affiliated with the Navy to accomplish things in the world. And there are some things you can only see when you remain independent"
Kuzan, Chapter 699
It's these lines that made me consider Smoker in the first place. I've also considered his roles within arcs he was in. Let me list em:
Loguetown: Wants to capture Luffy, continues pursuit by the end of the arc
Alabasta: Went to Alabasta because he wanted to capture Luffy, feels angered over the outcome (incident coverup by marine HQ)
Marineford: Confronts Luffy yet again, disappointed by the Marines' lack of morality during the conflict.
Punk Hazard: Traveled to Punk Hazard to capture Luffy, angered by Vergo's ability to infiltrate into Marines
His two actions within an arc where he plays a major role involves:
1. Capturing Luffy
2. Being disillusioned with the Marines
Now we're in the Final Saga, and.....where's Smoker? Based on the acitons above, I'm 99% sure he's going along with the other vice admirals to Egghead.
If and when that happens, how would Smoker feel if Luffy's actually saving Vegapunk? Having it revealed that the WG wanted him assassinated simply for research into the Void Century?
Let's take Smoker's philosophy on justice. He follows his own personal code, based on his own moral compass on what's right. If the predictions above turn out to be true, I personally believe that Smoker will resign from the Marines, heeding Kuzan's advice.
and if THAT turns to be true, then what's next for Smoker? Does he:
A. Stay completely, 100% independent
B. Join the Revos
or C., join the SHs?
I pick C.
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Helmsman is a "needed" role as shown in Tottoland. Some of the crew dies without Jinbe's ability to steer in the Green Room. Would Luffy and the Impel Down crew have made it on time if at all to Marineford without Jinbe helming the ship? Maybe but we cannot be certain. Would Merry have been as damaged if Jinbe was at the helm in East Blue? Definitely a different outcome on Reverse Mountain and the Knock Up Stream. The crew is bound to face deadlier waters like if/when they meet the man with the burn scar creating a gigantic vortex.
What exactly makes Smoker a Lookout? I'm guessing you're implying this role because of his Devil Fruit which I understand but I don't recall any examples of him actually being a lookout in some capacity.
There aren't any examples, I just thought he'd fit the role if he were to join. Though you are right in regards to Luffy needing a helmsman if he wanted to get out of WCI alive. I think the role's more of something necessary that's not initially thought of.