Can't say for sure
Kizaru says: "I can't move for a while"
Implying, he can start back up again after some time.
Luffy is also down due to time limit.
Both can get back up in sometime, and continue fighting.
However, when that happens, Luffy may have a better time, since he isn't really injured while Kizaru is. But then again, his stamina might also not be fully recovered, evening out the injuries Kizaru received.
IMO draw, all things considered.
Maybe can argue Luffy even, since against Kaido he started G5 by beating his heart forcefully.