Because every sceptics knows that playing with numbers to confirm a theory is close to a complotist based mindset.
Give me a statistic in which everyone, who calls themselves "sceptic" has voiced their opinion that "[...] playing with numbers to confirm a theory is close to a complotist based mindset."
Before you post the result of that study in here, you need to use "I think, [...]" at the beginning of that sentence. Otherwise it sounds like a fact that you cannot prove and we wouldn't have that, right? 😉
Yeah I see that, that's precisely the problem lol
Why is it a problem that you are attributing less weight to the Gorowase than me? It is a matter of subjectivity and no problem.
I do not point only no weight into it, I say that it is a very BAD WAY to theorize in general.
Why is it a bad way? If I come to the right conclusion (figuring out, who the 11th SHP is), than the way of how I do it worked well. Telling me that is a bad way now - even before we do not even know that my conclusion is wrong and Oda has not reveled the 11th member, yet - is not advisable. Because you cannot prove me wrong. And, if you are telling me otherwise, the next question, I would ask you is: Can you prove it to be wrong?
I proceed in a popperian way of thinking. Meaning that I use refutability as a way to prove my theory.
In other words, my goal is not to prove my theory right, its to make prove it wrong. This is how hard science work. Creating theory is a thing, but creating theory is simple. What is hard is to prove your theory. And trying to prove your theory by looking at elements that prove your theory right as a name its called a confirmation bias. To fight that, you actually need to do the opposite and make your theory refutable.
I hope you will find your own way in storytelling and anaöysing, because if you always immitate other's thinking, than you will never be better than them. By going about it the way you like you are creating your own place as a writer and analyst - this leaves you more freedom to try out different things.
your theory about number is exactly that. Its BS. Why ? Because its a theory that works backward, you find your element AFTER theoryzing to confirm your theory. So in short, pretty much anything and everything could fit into your theory as long as number are involve.
Can I actually pick up a little angry strain hinted in between those lines? Because, people start to insult others, when they feel angry and cannot hold back their feelings. Calling my analysis "BS" would indicate that. What are you angry about?
Why is my analysis wrong, if I fit numbers into my theory?
Wait, is it automatically right, if I don't do it?
(Just a joke - I hope you pick up, what I want to imply here.). ;)
And because of the confirmation bias, my analysis is doomed to be wrong from the beginning? I do not think so. Confirmation bias happens, but it can have big or little influence on the outcome. It heavily depends on the person, who is doing the analysis. And since you cannot look into my head and do not know me, you cannot ascertain that. Hence, you do not know how much that bias applies to me and that analysis of mine.
This is the prime trap in which are falling conspiracy theorist. They are using elements to prove their theory right instead of trying to prove their theory wrong.
Again, this is dependable on the person, who is doing the analysis. Also, a trap is a contraption, you can walk around, if you notice it. You do not have to walk into it. 😉
Yes, but there is an "IF" in my sentence. I don't think Oda plans to add another member.
And behind that "IF" of yours is an "if not". Meaning therefore you are undecided:
https://worstgen.alwaysdata.net/for...embers-and-the-grand-fleet.31999/post-4856739
Because I love theorizing. My goal here is not to prove that Carrot will join, its to make a prediction system reliable enough in the case that Oda is actually thinking about adding a new member into the crew. But it can perfectly be all for nothing.
Good, than we fit perfectly together, because I love analysing. I analyse first and you can draw your theories from it. Would actually be fun.