The Marines will 100% split from WG
I agree with your theory
Aye definitely! Thanks man! Sword does help to foreshadow this but Oda has done "Neo Marines" twice now, once with the filler arc with Panz Fry and Lily Enstomach IIRC, but that was a prelude to Film Z IIRC too and again with Film Z ofc. Somehow Zephyr had "Neo Pacifistas" which were meant to be superior than base Pacifistas too somehow, but Franky fucking one shot all of them with his laser pretty much lmfao.
I definitely see the Marines as a truly independent, reformed, autonomous or w/e faction by EOS or after it. If Akainu is still not Fleet Admiral as I expect him to die too, then I expect Fujitora as Fleet Admiral with Koby, Drake and Smoker as Admirals with Tashigi, Helmeppo, Grus etc as Vice Admirals although I'd love for Grus to be Admiral level somehow too lmao. Oda will need some "Honestly" bullshit powerups to make all of them Admiral level anyway but I'd be fine with that for the agenda lmao. Even I have my own toxic agendas as Im a hypocirte lmao.
Seriously though, im looking forward to seeing what the Marines become by the end of story and after it. "Actual Justice", a truly neutral faction ideally, not dogs to the world government or any countries or w/e too, unbiased, uncorrupted.
Sword are like Vigilantes which makes them pretty cool too.
I always felt Shanks and his crew would be like "pirate deputies", Shanks the Sheriff/Enforcer and he polices the seas where he can in the New World and anywhere else. I'd have them be generally neutral but still aligned to be "good" and thus "heroic" somewhat, definitely moral in some ways basically.
I hope Oda doesn't fuck this all up anyway. I doubt he will but Wano and some other things in OP have left me very scarred and cynical.