Controversial Trump vs Harris who do you predict wins?

Who do you predict wins?

  • Total voters
    50
  • Poll closed .
Indigo

Indigo

‎
#341
#341
Toby D. Dog said:
You know what I mean, she’s the gold standard, so it is at the very least, extremely significant.
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All i can say is this:

she had Trump winning Iowa by 18% after the debate with Biden

and in two months, by simply changing from Biden to Harris, she has changed her results to Harris winning by 3%

that's a 21% change, which is insane
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anyways, results' day should be interesting

especially with Trump's lackeys all over the place to question the election and trying to do shit with the SCOTUS

if Kamala does win by a huge landslide, which would be the case if Selzer is correct, this could foil his plans of declaring an early win and using everything he can to try and steal it
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

‎
#342
#342
Indigo said:
All i can say is this:

she had Trump winning Iowa by 18% after the debate with Biden

and in two months, by simply changing from Biden to Harris, she has changed her results to Harris winning by 3%

that's a 21% change, which is insane
Post automatically merged:

anyways, results' day should be interesting

especially with Trump's lackeys all over the place to question the election and trying to do shit with the SCOTUS

if Kamala does win by a huge landslide, which would be the case if Selzer is correct, this could foil his plans of declaring an early win and using everything he can to try and steal it
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Yeah, he was already planning to declare victory on election night when there is a big possibility we won’t know the results until a couple of days later. This might actually make it unfeasible for him to get away with it.
 
Indigo

Indigo

‎
#343
#343
Toby D. Dog said:
Yeah, he was already planning to declare victory on election night when there is a big possibility we won’t know the results until a couple of days later. This might actually make it unfeasible for him to get away with it.
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this is also super weird

most of the 2024 registration was also republican in Iowa

:PepeReport:

anyways

Selzer has either engraved themselves as the GOAT

or completely killed her reputation with this one lmao
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

‎
#344
#344
Indigo said:
this is also super weird

most of the 2024 registration was also republican in Iowa

:PepeReport:

anyways

Selzer has either engraved themselves as the GOAT

or completely killed her reputation with this one lmao
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As long as the point difference is between 1-5 it is still really good news for Harris, cuz that’ll mean the polls are severely underestimating her.
 
Apollo

Apollo

The Sol King
‎
#345
#345
Call it a gut feeling, but I think Trump's gonna win this election. In 2016 and 2020 he outperformed what the polls said in swing states.

If he does win, I wonder who DNC is gonna blame.
 
Toby D. Dog

Toby D. Dog

‎
#352
#352
Mr. Reloaded said:
Even the biased right winged political YouTube channels are shitting themselves calling it very close :doffytroll:
@Toby D. Dog @Indigo
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I still think a lot of polling companies besides the one I showed you guys yesterday are shitting their pants cuz they've been off every single election cycle since 2016. I do feel like there's something they're not seeing (plus all the early voting data has been extremely favorable for Harris) and there is a good chance we might be in landslide territory.

Let's remember that polling is only good if you can accurately predict who will show up to vote.
 
Mr. Reloaded

Mr. Reloaded

Professional Backstabber
‎
#353
#353
Natalija

Natalija

x
‎
#354
#354
Worst

Worst

Custom title
‎
#355
#355
Indigo

Indigo

‎
#357
#357
Mr. Reloaded said:
Do you still feel like Trump will win?
@Sentinel @Nidai_Kitetsu @Erkan12 @AL sama @Ravagerblade @Owl Ki @Kami Burn @Worst @Bullet @Starbound Beast D. Draig @Monkey D Theories @Zenos7 @Iaarm @Natalija @Sakazuki-Singh @Redditworstgencancer @BoaHancocksHusband @Okamakama @DarkestKnightofSpoilers @Suiki @Daniel @Apollo @Haoshoku @Oliver @RebelliousSoma @Poorsalino Cooker @Indigo @Jesse Pinkman
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He still has a chance, that's for sure

Toby D. Dog said:
@Indigo

The reason why Selzer included RFK is because he's still on the ballot in Iowa.
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"Selzer was the only pollster to correctly predict Barack Obama's comfortable victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses,[9] and her poll of the 2014 United States Senate election in Iowa also mirrored the actual result exceptionally closely.[11]"
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i'm aware

but i'm more of a numbers guy

i trust more in Nate Silver's model, taking into account all polls

he says Selzer is the best pollster, and at the same time said she was brave putting this one out, because she is likely gonna be wrong

and the fact that her sample wasn't really representative of Iowa this time around, with a big focus on non-trumpsters

also, neither Kamala or Trump going to Iowa at all, tells me their internal polling didn't show up as a competitive battleground

She could be right and the entire rest of the polling industry wrong, but even in her margin of error, Trump could win
 
Zenos7

Zenos7

‎
#358
#358
BoaHancocksHusband

BoaHancocksHusband

‎
#359
#359
Mr. Reloaded said:
Do you still feel like Trump will win?
@Sentinel @Nidai_Kitetsu @Erkan12 @AL sama @Ravagerblade @Owl Ki @Kami Burn @Worst @Bullet @Starbound Beast D. Draig @Monkey D Theories @Zenos7 @Iaarm @Natalija @Sakazuki-Singh @Redditworstgencancer @BoaHancocksHusband @Okamakama @DarkestKnightofSpoilers @Suiki @Daniel @Apollo @Haoshoku @Oliver @RebelliousSoma @Poorsalino Cooker @Indigo @Jesse Pinkman
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Yes the JD Vance Rogan interview proved my suspicions that Trump might be a goat
 
AL sama

AL sama

Red Haired
‎
#360
#360
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