Controversial Trump vs Harris who do you predict wins?
- Thread starter TheAncientCenturion
- Start date
- Tags make america great again trump x biden yaoi
In addition to Silver, Nate Cohen, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, has also voiced some concern that polling results may be flawed. Herding notwithstanding, Cohen says that pollsters may still be undercounting Trump’s support because of the difficulty of projecting his voter base.
“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” Cohen said of the latest New York Times/Sienna College poll, the final poll for the paper before the 2024 election.
@Toby D. Dog
Nate Silver Explains Why He Is Skeptical Of Battleground State Polling
“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” Cohen said of the latest New York Times/Sienna College poll, the final poll for the paper before the 2024 election.
@Toby D. Dog
Nate Silver Explains Why He Is Skeptical Of Battleground State Polling
I believe they're under-counting Harris and Democrats just like in 2022. I think these pollsters are afraid because they've always underestimated Trump and they're going far and beyond in order to make sure they don't. Democrats over performed the polls massively in 2022, and I barely see mainstream media talk about that fact.
I understand you're trying to be pragmatic and I respect it, but just wait 2 more days and hopefully you'll be able to see where I'm coming from.
I understand you're trying to be pragmatic and I respect it, but just wait 2 more days and hopefully you'll be able to see where I'm coming from.
Depends. If Kamala or Trump win with a big enough margin we will know that same night. If the margins are closer than that maybe 1 or 2 days. If they're as razor thin as pollsters want you to believe it could be a week or two.
One thing is for certain, Trump will declare victory that same night regardless of the result.
One thing is for certain, Trump will declare victory that same night regardless of the result.
@Mr. Reloaded Going to hold the line for now. Only a couple more days until the end of the election and I'm not getting my hopes up for anybody on either side just yet.
https://www.ibtimes.sg/viral-moment-trump-mimics-sex-act-mic-stand-stuns-wisconsin-crowd-76708
Is this your president?
Is this your president?
Interesting watch.
Just so you guys don't start freaking out as the votes start being counted. The first votes that are counted are those that are cast on election day. The mail-in votes are counted after the fact.
It is what is colloquially referred to as "the red mirage." So I don't want to hear no claims about fraud when blue votes start increasing massively later in the night.
My prediction map. I have Iowa as a tossup.
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Just so you guys don't start freaking out as the votes start being counted. The first votes that are counted are those that are cast on election day. The mail-in votes are counted after the fact.
It is what is colloquially referred to as "the red mirage." So I don't want to hear no claims about fraud when blue votes start increasing massively later in the night.
Post automatically merged:
My prediction map. I have Iowa as a tossup.
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